House
218 seats for a majority
Democrats
251
Republicans
153
Democrats win control. 31 undecided.
Forecast: Democrats 258 (257–260), Republicans 177 (175–178). Undecided races are about 90% counted
Thursday, November 5, 2026
Democrats win the House and the Senate
Both chambers have been called. Still undecided: 31 House seats, the Senate races in Alaska and Mississippi and the governor races in Alaska and Kansas.
Senate
51 seats for a majority
Democrats
54
Republicans
44
Democrats win control. 2 undecided. Totals include 65 seats not on the ballot.
Forecast: Democrats 56 (55–56), Republicans 44 (44–45). Undecided races are about 84% counted
Governors
50 governorships
Democrats
28
Republicans
20
2 undecided. Totals include 14 governors not on the ballot.
Forecast: Democrats 30, Republicans 20. Undecided races are about 84% counted
Decided Forecast only No forecast Majority line
Still undecided
All 35 undecided races| Race | Leading | Lead | Counted | Forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NC-05 | Hubbard D | 99 | 90% | Foxx 99% |
| NC-03 | Murphy R | 233 | 96% | Murphy 91% |
| MN-01 | Johnson D | 321 | 99% | Johnson 86% flip |
| TN-04 | Broderick D | 280 | 99% | Broderick 76% flip |
| MS Senate | Colom D | 1,892 | 99% | Colom 97% flip |
| AK Senate | Peltola D | 637 | 70% | Peltola 80% flip |
| FL-27 | Salazar R | 1,116 | 99% | Salazar 94% |
| FL-09 | Soto D | 1,477 | 99% | Soto 98% |
| FL-07 | Elijah R | 1,701 | 99% | Elijah 98% |
| KS Governor | Holscher D | 7,045 | 99% | Holscher 99% |
| NC-07 | Rouzer R | 2,425 | 96% | Rouzer >99% |
| FL-26 | Diaz-Balart R | 1,772 | 99% | Diaz-Balart 98% |
5 more races have no declared winner, but only one party on the ballot, so the seat itself is settled: CA-04, CA-07, CA-11, CA-14, CA-40.
How far each race moved
vs. 2024vs. 2022The spreadvs. the presidentSenate and governorTicket splittingTurnoutLater votesPre-electionEvery county
House races vs. 2024
How far has each seat moved since the last presidential year? Above the line, toward Democrats.
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.
235 moved toward Democrats, 5 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +14.0.
Districts redrawn since then and races with an unopposed candidate are left out.
3 far from the pattern
- ME-02: 63 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 97% counted
- KY-06: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- NJ-09: 17 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 92% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
House races vs. 2022
How far has each seat moved since the last midterm, the closest match for who turns out?
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.
196 moved toward Democrats, 4 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +13.4.
Districts redrawn since then and races with an unopposed candidate are left out.
2 far from the pattern
- KY-06: 24 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- ME-02: 19 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 97% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
How races moved, all at once
Did seats move together, or are some far from the rest? A single hump means one national tide.
Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle
Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.
3 far from the pattern
- ME-02: R +52.7 since 2024, 67 points from the middle
- KY-06: D +40.0 since 2022, 27 points from the middle
- HI-02: R +4.5 since 2024, 19 points from the middle
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
House candidates vs. the 2024 president
Who is running ahead of the top of the ticket? Compared in the same places.
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are candidates who won over voters from the other party's presidential side. Above the black line, a House candidate ran ahead of the Democrat for president.
384 moved toward Democrats, 4 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +13.8.
8 far from the pattern
- TX-28: 35 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- TX-15: 27 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- NJ-09: 23 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 92% counted
- CA-22: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 60% counted
- TX-09: 21 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 92% counted
- NY-12: 19 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 99% counted
- NJ-06: 18 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 89% counted
- NY-06: 18 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 96% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
Senate and governor vs. the 2024 president
Which statewide candidates outran their state's presidential vote?
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are candidates leading in states that voted the other way for president. Above the black line, a candidate ran ahead of the Democrat for president.
61 moved toward Democrats, 4 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +13.8.
1 far from the pattern
- VT Governor: 45 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 99% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
Statewide races vs. the same state's House vote
Where did voters split their ticket? Far from the line, a statewide candidate ran apart from the party's House candidates.
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are the real ticket-splitters: voters backed one party's statewide candidate and the other's House candidates. Above the black line, the statewide Democrat ran ahead of the party's House vote.
35 moved toward Democrats, 30 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +1.0.
4 far from the pattern
- AK Governor: 62 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 69% counted
- AK Senate: 62 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 70% counted
- VT Governor: 40 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 99% counted
- NH Governor: 21 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 91% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
Turnout vs. shift since 2022
Did seats with a surge in votes also swing? A slope means higher turnout helped one side.
Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansThe patternFar from the pattern
Blue is good for Democrats and red for Republicans. If higher-turnout seats sit higher, a surge helped Democrats; if they sit lower, it helped Republicans. The right side had more votes than last time.
Only races at least 90% counted.
2 far from the pattern
- KY-06: 25 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- ME-02: 21 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 97% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
Early votes vs. later votes
How much did a race move after half its vote was in? Later ballots often lean differently, so expect some shift. Far from the pattern is the interesting part.
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue is good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are races where the later count changed who was ahead. Below the black line, later votes helped Republicans; above it, Democrats. States count in different orders, so compare with others in the same state.
101 moved toward Democrats, 263 toward Republicans. The middle shift is R +3.9.
Half of the votes counted so far, read from this site's own log of each update.
4 far from the pattern
- MN-03: 53 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 99% counted
- TX-25: 29 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 97% counted
- CA-02: 24 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 51% counted
- FL-02: 23 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 99% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
Pre-election estimate vs. the count
Which races surprised? A published estimate from before election day, against the votes.
Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern
Blue is good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are upsets. Above the black line, Democrats beat the estimate; below it, Republicans did.
405 moved toward Democrats, 75 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +6.1.
7 far from the pattern
- TX-28: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- TX-15: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
- IL-04: 21 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 89% counted
- CA-22: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 60% counted
- NY-12: 20 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 99% counted
- TX-09: 19 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 92% counted
- UT-03: 19 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 66% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
Every county's shift since the 2024 president
Does a county's size go with how far it moved? Small counties naturally vary more, so look at big ones far from the middle.
Far from the pattern
Above Even, in blue, a county moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Below it, in red, toward Republicans. Farther right means more votes, so a big county far from the middle matters more than a small one.
Shaded cells hold many counties, darker for more. Dots are counties far from the rest of the country.
39 far from the pattern
- Starr, Texas: 67 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
- Zapata, Texas: 64 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 81% counted
- Maverick, Texas: 45 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 98% counted
- Duval, Texas: 41 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
- Hidalgo, Texas: 39 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
- Caddo, Louisiana: 38 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
- Jim Hogg, Texas: 36 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
- Webb, Texas: 36 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.
County map
Full map and past electionsThe vote against past elections
House
| This year | D +12.6 |
|---|---|
| 2024 House | R +0.4 |
| 2022 House | R +0.2 |
The same 189 races in each row, weighted by this year's votes.
Senate
| This year | D +7.7 |
|---|---|
| 2024 President | R +8.3 |
| 2022 Senate and Senate (other seat) | R +7.8 |
The same 15 races in each row, weighted by this year's votes.
Governors
| This year | D +11.9 |
|---|---|
| 2024 President | R +1.4 |
| 2022 Governor | R +1.3 |
The same 36 races in each row, weighted by this year's votes.