Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New York · U.S. House

New York 21st District

Anthony Constantino wins. Called.

96% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Anthony Constantino R won 139,944 51.0%
Blake Gendebien D 134,399 49.0%
Total274,343

200 of 200 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
St. Lawrence 34,650 D +6.4 R +18.0 D +24.4 97%
Oneida 32,113 R +20.5 R +36.2 D +15.7 100%
Clinton 28,407 D +17.5 R +2.2 D +19.7 97%
Warren 28,240 D +12.4 R +4.2 D +16.6 95%
Saratoga 22,612 D +1.4 R +13.4 D +14.7 91%
Washington 22,313 R +5.4 R +21.2 D +15.8 97%
Herkimer 21,407 R +18.5 R +36.4 D +18.0 97%
Fulton 17,951 R +13.7 R +35.9 D +22.2 97%
Franklin 15,312 D +14.4 R +9.0 D +23.4 97%
Essex 14,579 D +15.0 D +0.5 D +14.5 97%
Schoharie 12,338 R +14.8 R +30.5 D +15.8 91%
Lewis 9,832 R +24.6 R +44.4 D +19.8 97%
Montgomery 7,532 R +22.6 R +42.8 D +20.2 97%
Jefferson 4,265 R +9.6 R +28.9 D +19.3 97%
Hamilton 2,792 R +14.5 R +29.5 D +14.9 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+16 votes274,343R +2.0
+857 votes274,327R +2.0
+848 votes273,470R +2.0
Candidate totals changed272,622R +2.1
+193 votes272,622R +1.8
Anthony Constantino wins——
Count revised by -40 votes272,429R +1.8
+5,063 votes272,469R +1.8
+12 votes267,406R +1.8
+16,192 votes267,394R +1.8
+17,220 votes251,202R +1.0
+16,976 votes233,982R +0.8