Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Washington · U.S. House

Washington 5th District

Baumgartner leads by 4,964 votes. Not called.

66% counted

Our forecast: Michael Baumgartner, 83% chance of winning. Projected finish Baumgartner +2.6. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Michael Baumgartner R 115,423 51.1%
Carmela Conroy D 110,459 48.9%
Total225,882

Last vote update Nov 5, 5:20 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Spokane 154,408 D +5.9 R +5.1 D +11.0 65%
Asotin 9,117 R +20.7 R +26.4 D +5.6 83%
Whitman 8,483 D +9.9 D +9.3 D +0.6 50%
Walla Walla 8,078 D +2.6 R +8.3 D +10.9 31%
Stevens 7,554 R +37.2 R +45.3 D +8.1 31%
Pend Oreille 6,777 R +36.1 R +40.6 D +4.5 93%
Lincoln 4,017 R +46.9 R +51.3 D +4.4 61%
Ferry 2,404 R +29.9 R +34.0 D +4.1 66%
Adams 1,974 R +56.3 R +56.2 R +0.2 100%
Columbia 1,937 R +40.9 R +44.9 D +3.9 83%
Franklin 1,862 R +60.2 R +61.9 D +1.8 79%
Garfield 1,255 R +55.4 R +49.3 R +6.0 89%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+18,016 votes225,882R +2.2
+1,451 votes207,866R +1.6
+545 votes206,415R +1.5
+119 votes205,870R +1.3
+452 votes205,751R +1.3
+13,385 votes205,299R +1.2
+250 votes191,914R +1.0
+64 votes191,664R +1.0
+131 votes191,600R +1.0
+7,554 votes191,469R +1.0
+8,078 votes183,915D +0.5
+1,429 votes175,837D +0.4