Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

North Carolina · U.S. House

North Carolina 5th District

Hubbard leads by 99 votes. Not called.

90% counted

Our forecast: Virginia Foxx, 99% chance of winning. Projected finish Foxx +4.0. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Charles Hubbard D 139,034 48.7%
Virginia Foxx R 138,935 48.7%
Robert Luffman L 7,529 2.6%
Total285,498

270 of 270 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Guilford 105,400 D +46.0 D +35.2 D +10.8 98%
Rockingham 34,059 R +22.8 R +36.2 D +13.4 92%
Caldwell 27,194 R +35.3 R +53.0 D +17.7 86%
Surry 24,113 R +36.1 R +53.7 D +17.6 86%
Watauga 23,721 D +28.4 D +6.1 D +22.3 91%
Wilkes 23,595 R +44.4 R +60.1 D +15.6 85%
Stokes 17,482 R +45.7 R +60.1 D +14.3 84%
Alexander 13,451 R +47.7 R +60.3 D +12.6 77%
Ashe 11,779 R +26.8 R +44.8 D +18.0 87%
Alleghany 4,704 R +38.5 R +52.3 D +13.9 82%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+745 votes285,498Even
+363 votes284,753R +0.1
+7,162 votes284,390R +0.2
+3,574 votes277,228R +0.6
+2,280 votes273,654R +1.3
+1,761 votes271,374R +1.8
+4,462 votes269,613R +2.0
+1,430 votes265,151R +2.4
+1,930 votes263,721R +2.3
+1,827 votes261,791R +2.6
+12,945 votes259,964R +2.5
+232 votes247,019R +1.0