Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Colorado · U.S. House

Colorado 4th District

Laubacher leads by 3,277 votes. Not called.

95% counted

Our forecast: Eileen Laubacher, 92% chance of winning. Projected finish Laubacher +0.2. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Eileen Laubacher D 184,059 48.8%
Lauren Boebert R 180,782 47.9%
Douglas Mangeris L 12,440 3.3%
Total377,281

367 of 611 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 5:41 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Douglas 201,926 D +11.1 R +7.4 D +18.5 97%
Larimer 58,283 D +17.8 R +2.5 D +20.2 96%
Weld 34,926 R +19.3 R +38.4 D +19.1 100%
Elbert 17,060 R +38.0 R +52.3 D +14.3 95%
Arapahoe 14,103 D +25.9 R +3.5 D +29.4 76%
Morgan 10,120 R +25.2 R +49.8 D +24.6 91%
Logan 7,722 R +39.2 R +57.8 D +18.6 85%
Adams 5,943 R +27.0 R +50.0 D +23.0 100%
Prowers 3,944 R +33.1 R +51.5 D +18.4 84%
Yuma 3,693 R +46.1 R +66.8 D +20.7 84%
El Paso 3,692 R +50.2 R +65.7 D +15.5 94%
Kit Carson 2,879 R +57.8 R +69.4 D +11.7 86%
Washington 2,192 R +58.7 R +76.2 D +17.5 83%
Lincoln 1,908 R +49.0 R +65.7 D +16.8 82%
Phillips 1,874 R +42.7 R +64.2 D +21.4 87%
Bent 1,610 R +26.7 R +39.7 D +13.1 79%
Baca 1,522 R +58.8 R +72.0 D +13.1 79%
Crowley 1,305 R +39.6 R +48.9 D +9.3 87%
Sedgwick 1,067 R +40.4 R +57.5 D +17.0 82%
Cheyenne 825 R +66.4 R +79.2 D +12.8 82%
Kiowa 687 R +73.2 R +75.9 D +2.7 82%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+60 votes377,281D +0.9
+6,382 votes377,221D +0.9
+626 votes370,839D +0.8
+7,109 votes370,213D +0.8
+790 votes363,104D +0.7
+834 votes362,314D +0.6
+3,342 votes361,480D +0.7
+236 votes358,138D +0.9
+232 votes357,902D +1.0
+465 votes357,670D +1.0
+2,502 votes357,205D +1.0
+3,964 votes354,703D +1.3