Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 51st District

Sara Jacobs wins. Called.

61% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Sara Jacobs D won 109,166 63.1%
Ricardo Cabrera R 63,712 36.9%
Total172,878

663 of 663 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
San Diego 172,878 D +26.3 D +19.1 D +7.2 69%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+3,834 votes172,878D +26.3
+5,359 votes169,044D +25.7
+4,016 votes163,685D +25.6
+4,049 votes159,669D +25.3
+195 votes155,620D +26.2
+155,425 votes155,425D +26.2
Sara Jacobs wins——