Texas · U.S. House

Texas 38th District

Jon Bonck wins. Called.

99% counted

Candidate	Votes	Share
Jon Bonck R won	157,261	51.5%
Melissa McDonough D	144,397	47.3%
Alex McMenemy G	3,443	1.1%
Total	305,101

183 of 183 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 3:43 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

Place	Votes	Margin	2024 president	Shift	Counted
Harris	305,101	R +4.3	R +21.2	D +17.0	100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

Time	Update	Total votes	Margin
Nov 4, 10:29 AM	Jon Bonck wins	—	—
Nov 4, 8:11 AM	+1,053 votes	305,101	R +4.3
Nov 4, 5:29 AM	+45,112 votes	304,048	R +4.3
Nov 4, 12:17 AM	+16,663 votes	258,936	R +3.7
Nov 3, 10:59 PM	+2,794 votes	242,273	R +2.9
Nov 3, 9:53 PM	+368 votes	239,479	R +2.8
Nov 3, 7:17 PM	+239,111 votes	239,111	R +2.8

Forecast

Called.

Lead now: Bonck +4.3
Votes left: About 0
Projected finish: Bonck +4.3
80% range: Bonck +4.6 to Bonck +3.9

Prediction markets

Market	Democrat wins	Traded
Kalshi	<1%	15K contracts
Polymarket	<1%	$41K

Chance a Democrat wins since Nov 3, 5:55 PM. Polymarket <1% · Kalshi <1%

Against past results

This year so far	R +4.3
2024 President, statewide	R +13.9
Shift from 2024 president same places	D +17.0
Published pre-election estimate	R +10.0

This state's House map changed for 2026, so old district results are not compared. The party that held the seat comes from the previous map.

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