Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Virginia · U.S. House

Virginia 1st District

Shannon Taylor wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

97% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Shannon Taylor D won 213,783 50.6%
Rob Wittman R 208,528 49.4%
Total422,311

221 of 221 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Chesterfield 92,618 D +12.0 D +3.2 D +8.8 97%
Henrico 88,423 D +25.6 D +16.3 D +9.3 97%
Hanover 66,664 R +20.7 R +24.4 D +3.7 97%
James City 43,547 D +10.7 D +6.3 D +4.4 97%
York 32,800 R +0.3 R +6.2 D +6.0 97%
Gloucester 17,948 R +32.5 R +38.7 D +6.2 97%
New Kent 14,023 R +24.9 R +32.1 D +7.2 97%
King William 9,018 R +32.5 R +40.9 D +8.4 97%
Westmoreland 8,771 R +8.6 R +14.4 D +5.8 97%
Northumberland 6,948 R +21.5 R +21.3 R +0.2 97%
Williamsburg City 6,810 D +49.6 D +45.2 D +4.4 97%
Poquoson City 6,301 R +40.1 R +46.5 D +6.4 97%
Lancaster 6,190 R +8.4 R +7.1 R +1.3 97%
Middlesex 5,883 R +26.0 R +27.6 D +1.6 97%
Essex 4,979 R +4.0 R +7.8 D +3.8 97%
Mathews 4,750 R +35.3 R +39.7 D +4.4 97%
King & Queen 3,330 R +21.5 R +25.9 D +4.4 97%
Richmond 3,308 R +29.0 R +30.4 D +1.4 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+47 votes422,311D +1.2
+135 votes422,264D +1.2
+6 votes422,129D +1.2
+20,161 votes422,123D +1.2
+71 votes401,962D +2.0
+5,181 votes401,891D +2.0
Shannon Taylor wins——
+9,346 votes396,710D +2.1
+3,410 votes387,364D +1.1
+4,334 votes383,954D +1.2
+39,320 votes379,620D +0.7
+1,119 votes340,300R +1.1