Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. Senate

Florida Senate special election

Ashley Moody wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Ashley Moody R won 4,207,774 50.9%
Angie Nixon D 3,968,811 48.0%
Neil Gillespie NPA 94,529 1.1%
Total8,271,114

5,075 of 5,097 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Miami-Dade 784,423 D +7.2 R +11.5 D +18.7 100%
Broward 659,761 D +32.6 D +17.1 D +15.5 100%
Palm Beach 570,107 D +10.4 D +0.8 D +9.6 100%
Hillsborough 516,454 D +9.1 R +3.1 D +12.2 100%
Orange 471,719 D +28.8 D +13.8 D +15.0 100%
Pinellas 403,408 D +0.7 R +5.3 D +5.9 100%
Duval 358,791 D +11.1 R +1.5 D +12.6 100%
Lee 303,836 R +21.6 R +28.6 D +7.0 100%
Brevard 269,941 R +14.5 R +21.0 D +6.6 100%
Polk 257,911 R +6.7 R +20.9 D +14.1 100%
Pasco 240,110 R +14.5 R +25.5 D +11.0 100%
Volusia 236,454 R +15.8 R +21.9 D +6.1 100%
Sarasota 223,362 R +16.7 R +18.3 D +1.7 100%
Seminole 194,890 D +6.7 R +3.6 D +10.3 100%
Manatee 182,041 R +19.6 R +23.7 D +4.1 100%
Lake 177,906 R +18.7 R +24.9 D +6.2 100%
Collier 171,671 R +29.0 R +33.3 D +4.3 100%
Marion 163,871 R +26.1 R +31.9 D +5.7 100%
St. Johns 155,868 R +26.6 R +31.6 D +5.1 100%
St. Lucie 137,823 D +2.2 R +9.1 D +11.3 100%
Osceola 131,736 D +18.6 R +1.5 D +20.1 100%
Leon 125,128 D +31.6 D +22.0 D +9.6 100%
Escambia 116,036 R +9.9 R +19.8 D +9.9 100%
Alachua 105,436 D +33.4 D +21.3 D +12.1 100%
Charlotte 100,471 R +33.8 R +34.2 D +0.4 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,118 votes8,271,114R +2.9
+648 votes8,269,996R +2.9
+4,710 votes8,269,348R +2.9
+279 votes8,264,638R +2.9
+2,444 votes8,264,359R +2.9
+533 votes8,261,915R +3.0
+4,050 votes8,261,382R +3.0
+1,184 votes8,257,332R +3.0
+1,014 votes8,256,148R +3.0
+3,250 votes8,255,134R +3.0
+500 votes8,251,884R +3.0
+177 votes8,251,384R +3.0