Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Nebraska

All races decided, 1 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +13.0 since 2024. D +13.6 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spread

Nebraska counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 House margin this year 2024 president margin Colfax Dakota Gosper R for president, D here: 1 D for both: 2 R for both: 89 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

29 moved toward Democrats, 63 toward Republicans. The middle shift is R +2.5.

3 far from the pattern
  • Colfax: 17 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Dakota: 16 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Gosper: 13 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Nebraska counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Dakota Thurston Colfax Lancaster Dawson Was R, now D: 1 D both times: 2 R both times: 89 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

85 moved toward Democrats, 7 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +6.0.

6 far from the pattern
  • Dakota: 28 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Thurston: 22 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Colfax: 17 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Lancaster: 15 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Dawson: 14 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Banner: 9 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How Nebraska's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 Change in margin Since 2024: 93 counties, middle R +2.5 Since 2022: 93 counties, middle D +5.9 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

8 far from the pattern
  • Dakota: D +38.8 since 2022, 33 points from the middle
  • Thurston: D +35.1 since 2022, 29 points from the middle
  • Colfax: D +25.8 since 2022, 20 points from the middle
  • Dawson: D +20.7 since 2022, 15 points from the middle
  • Sarpy: D +12.1 since 2024, 15 points from the middle
  • Douglas: D +11.1 since 2024, 14 points from the middle
  • Lancaster: D +9.9 since 2024, 12 points from the middle
  • Gosper: R +14.5 since 2024, 12 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
GovernorD +11.6D +15.2
District 1D +15.9D +11.6
District 2D +17.6D +18.5
District 3D +4.8D +10.4

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Pete Ricketts won
50.4%373,115
Dan Osborn
43.6%322,625
Robin Richards
2.6%19,064
99% counted

Governor

Jim Pillen won
50.8%376,242
Lynne Walz
42.2%312,633
Brett Lindstrom
4.4%32,592
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Mike Flood won
50.3%124,881
Chris Backemeyer
46.2%114,664
Nik Sandman
1.8%4,500
99% counted

District 2

Denise Powell won
56.4%138,733
Brinker Harding
41.0%100,895
Eric Foreman
2.6%6,310
99% counted

District 3

Adrian Smith won
71.0%173,220
Becky Stille
20.0%48,842
Mark Cohen
3.3%8,064
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Douglas211,224100%D +11.1D +18.9
Lancaster122,523100%D +9.9D +8.6
Sarpy79,314100%D +12.1D +19.2
Buffalo19,153100%R +1.7D +11.1
Hall17,992100%D +2.8D +17.8
Dodge12,976100%D +6.6D +11.9
Madison12,16798%D +4.8D +14.6
Platte12,103100%D +5.4D +14.3
Cass12,235100%D +8.5D +9.5
Lincoln12,66999%R +2.4D +7.6
Saunders10,738100%D +8.8D +13.1
Adams10,932100%R +0.9D +11.2
Scotts Bluff11,626100%D +1.6D +11.1
Washington9,512100%D +1.2D +14.6
Gage8,492100%R +6.7D +4.8
Seward7,511100%D +2.3D +3.7
Dawson6,858100%D +1.3D +20.7
Otoe6,379100%D +1.6D +16.3
York5,376100%R +3.8D +13.9
Dakota4,981100%D +18.6D +38.8
Hamilton4,352100%R +1.7D +8.3
Saline4,442100%D +3.4D +16.5
Red Willow4,237100%R +2.7D +5.6
Holt4,19698%R +4.0D +3.5
Custer3,865100%R +2.5D +4.4
Cedar3,881100%R +3.0D +5.0
Phelps3,816100%R +4.4D +2.8
Butler3,593100%D +3.8D +6.7
Knox3,695100%R +5.6D +5.9
Cuming3,340100%R +1.7D +6.2
Merrick3,522100%R +4.3D +5.1
Cheyenne3,390100%R +1.3D +7.9
Wayne3,297100%D +3.5D +15.0
Box Butte3,580100%R +6.1D +1.7
Keith3,363100%R +7.2D +2.8
Pierce3,062100%R +2.1D +6.1
Colfax2,907100%D +16.2D +25.8
Richardson2,966100%D +0.7D +9.8
Kearney2,901100%R +6.0D +6.4
Dawes3,09891%R +4.7D +7.7
Burt2,902100%R +1.0D +12.2
Clay2,86197%R +7.0D +5.6
Stanton2,667100%D +1.9D +7.7
Howard2,729100%R +1.6D +6.4
Antelope2,716100%R +3.8D +2.4
Nemaha2,726100%R +3.7D +12.7
Jefferson2,748100%R +7.2D +6.2
Boone2,446100%R +4.9D +6.4
Cherry2,446100%R +2.6D +4.3
Fillmore2,366100%R +4.7D +7.6
Dixon2,255100%D +3.4D +12.6
Polk2,135100%D +0.9D +4.3
Thayer2,213100%R +3.7D +5.8
Furnas1,982100%R +4.0D +4.6
Morrill2,019100%R +2.8D +3.5
Sheridan1,993100%R +6.0D +3.9
Valley1,791100%R +3.5D +7.0
Johnson1,771100%R +4.3D +10.4
Nuckolls1,713100%R +2.9D +9.0
Chase1,532100%D +0.1D +5.3
Thurston1,520100%EvenD +35.1
Harlan1,394100%R +5.2D +0.2
Webster1,335100%R +2.9D +5.2
Nance1,324100%R +1.4D +5.0
Kimball1,287100%D +0.3D +9.9
Brown1,267100%R +5.3D +4.0
Sherman1,300100%R +4.9R +0.7
Franklin1,224100%R +5.1D +4.5
Perkins1,165100%R +5.9D +2.2
Pawnee1,129100%R +3.8D +5.5
Frontier1,119100%R +7.5R +0.6
Hitchcock1,067100%D +0.2D +4.3
Greeley979100%R +0.5D +5.4
Boyd869100%R +3.6D +4.5
Gosper896100%R +14.5D +0.8
Garfield812100%R +0.6D +8.2
Garden895100%R +8.6D +0.6
Deuel777100%R +7.0D +5.2
Rock699100%R +4.1D +0.9
Dundy682100%R +2.3D +4.3
Sioux503100%R +2.5D +2.9
Keya Paha424100%R +4.3R +2.0
Hayes384100%R +1.2R +1.5
Wheeler386100%R +6.0D +1.8
Hooker337100%R +2.5D +6.2
Loup337100%R +3.2D +6.5
Logan322100%D +1.1D +1.0
Banner315100%R +4.4R +5.2
Thomas310100%R +7.6R +4.3
Grant282100%R +3.8R +3.0
McPherson230100%D +0.8R +4.7
Arthur227100%D +1.1D +6.4
Blaine232100%R +5.9D +1.9