Hawaii · U.S. House

Hawaii 1st District

Ed Case wins. Called.

83% counted

Candidate	Votes	Share
Ed Case D won	126,022	71.8%
Adriel Lam R	40,235	22.9%
Jordan Conley G	6,977	4.0%
Nathan Berning NP	2,341	1.3%
Total	175,575

Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 10:00 PM.

By county

Place	Votes	Margin	2024 president	Shift	Counted
Honolulu	175,575	D +51.6	D +25.2	D +26.4	83%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

Time	Update	Total votes	Margin
Nov 5, 12:55 AM	+17,540 votes	175,575	D +51.6
Nov 4, 12:21 PM	+22,946 votes	158,035	D +53.4
Nov 4, 12:16 AM	+25,409 votes	135,089	D +55.5
Nov 3, 11:19 PM	+109,680 votes	109,680	D +58.9
Nov 3, 10:00 PM	Ed Case wins	—	—

Forecast

Called.

Lead now: Case +51.6
Votes left: About 33,200
Those votes should favor: Case +42.9
Projected finish: Case +50.1
80% range: Case +47.2 to Case +53.1
To catch up: Lam needs more votes than remain

Prediction markets

Market	Democrat wins	Traded
Kalshi	>99%	2,690 contracts
Polymarket	>99%	$57K

Chance a Democrat wins since Nov 3, 5:55 PM. Polymarket 98% · Kalshi >99%

Against past results

This year so far	D +51.6
2024 House	D +43.7
2022 House	D +47.4
2024 President, statewide	D +23.6
Shift from 2024 president same places	D +26.4
Published pre-election estimate	D +50.0

Also in Hawaii

All Hawaii

HI Governor HI-02