Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Mississippi · U.S. House

Mississippi 3rd District

Michael Guest wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Michael Guest R won 144,347 57.6%
Michael Chiaradio D 103,048 41.1%
Erik Kiehle L 3,141 1.3%
Total250,536

Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Rankin 51,171 R +35.2 R +47.6 D +12.5 100%
Madison 35,601 R +25.6 R +33.5 D +7.9 100%
Lauderdale 21,774 R +8.6 R +21.4 D +12.8 100%
Oktibbeha 13,892 D +15.9 D +4.2 D +11.7 100%
Pike 12,606 D +12.2 R +3.5 D +15.7 100%
Lincoln 12,344 R +36.0 R +45.7 D +9.7 100%
Hinds 8,933 D +12.8 D +5.8 D +7.0 100%
Marion 8,388 R +28.2 R +42.0 D +13.8 100%
Simpson 8,355 R +26.1 R +36.9 D +10.8 100%
Neshoba 8,040 R +35.5 R +51.3 D +15.8 100%
Scott 7,751 R +7.8 R +24.1 D +16.3 100%
Winston 7,192 R +1.2 R +18.4 D +17.2 100%
Newton 6,832 R +31.4 R +43.7 D +12.3 100%
Jasper 6,128 D +10.2 R +5.1 D +15.2 100%
Covington 5,745 R +21.6 R +33.5 D +12.0 94%
Clarke 5,617 R +18.1 R +35.4 D +17.3 100%
Smith 5,454 R +50.7 R +61.1 D +10.4 100%
Walthall 5,197 R +15.0 R +27.2 D +12.2 100%
Lawrence 4,588 R +25.2 R +36.8 D +11.6 100%
Jefferson Davis 4,523 D +24.8 D +13.8 D +11.0 100%
Noxubee 4,113 D +54.6 D +47.9 D +6.7 100%
Kemper 3,383 D +27.5 D +16.9 D +10.6 100%
Jones 2,909 R +38.3 R +54.9 D +16.6 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+2,909 votes250,536R +16.7
+1,951 votes247,627R +16.4
+71 votes245,676R +16.7
+3,383 votes245,605R +16.7
+1,761 votes242,222R +17.4
+941 votes240,461R +17.4
+531 votes239,520R +17.7
+4,193 votes238,989R +17.9
+13,892 votes234,796R +17.3
+1,049 votes220,904R +19.4
+748 votes219,855R +19.2
+12,535 votes219,107R +19.4