Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Ohio · U.S. House

Ohio 15th District

Don Leonard wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Don Leonard D won 149,287 51.9%
Mike Carey R 130,225 45.3%
Brennan Barrington L 8,135 2.8%
Total287,647

421 of 452 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Franklin 196,744 D +27.7 D +10.8 D +16.9 100%
Pickaway 21,983 R +35.5 R +49.0 D +13.5 100%
Miami 20,121 R +39.5 R +50.6 D +11.1 100%
Madison 16,174 R +31.7 R +44.1 D +12.5 100%
Highland 14,221 R +51.5 R +63.7 D +12.2 92%
Clark 9,350 R +32.5 R +44.2 D +11.7 99%
Fayette 9,054 R +45.4 R +55.6 D +10.2 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+3,165 votes287,647D +6.8
+203 votes284,482D +7.4
+5,639 votes284,279D +7.4
+5,750 votes278,640D +9.0
Don Leonard wins——
+22,317 votes272,890D +8.2
+1,129 votes250,573D +6.6
+28,019 votes249,444D +6.7
+6,189 votes221,425D +4.7
+1,933 votes215,236D +6.0
+22,473 votes213,303D +6.4
+1,830 votes190,830D +5.0