Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 13th District

Adam Gray wins. Called.

56% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Adam Gray D won 58,378 61.4%
Kevin Lincoln R 36,772 38.6%
Total95,150

974 of 974 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:13 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Merced 41,025 D +14.9 R +4.5 D +19.4 63%
Stanislaus 30,922 D +21.3 R +0.4 D +21.8 50%
San Joaquin 14,972 D +39.3 D +14.2 D +25.1 51%
Madera 6,181 D +32.6 R +3.3 D +35.9 55%
Fresno 2,050 D +48.6 D +11.5 D +37.1 55%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+209 votes95,150D +22.7
+1,700 votes94,941D +22.6
+4,862 votes93,241D +22.8
+1,327 votes88,379D +23.1
+2,207 votes87,052D +23.0
+2,492 votes84,845D +23.2
+306 votes82,353D +22.7
+969 votes82,047D +22.6
+364 votes81,078D +22.4
+1,456 votes80,714D +22.3
+2,154 votes79,258D +22.1
+707 votes77,104D +22.4