Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

New York

3 races undecided, about 88% counted. The state's House vote has moved D +10.4 since 2024.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 17 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
GovernorD +6.8D +13.1
District 1D +8.2—
District 2D +16.3—
District 3D +6.4—
District 4D +10.5—
District 5D +11.8—
District 6D +14.9—
District 7D +13.2—
District 8D +9.3—
District 9D +17.1—
District 10R +1.2—
District 11D +15.9—
District 12R +2.2—
District 13D +9.9—
District 14D +18.4—
District 15D +18.9—
District 16D +21.4—
District 17D +10.9—
District 18D +11.5—
District 19D +17.1—
District 20D +5.1—
District 21D +22.0—
District 22D +6.9—
District 23D +12.2—
District 24D +10.7—
District 25D +4.4—
District 26D +0.7—

Statewide

Governor

Kathy Hochul won
59.7%3,511,707
Bruce Blakeman
40.3%2,365,949
93% counted

Congress

District 1

Nicholas LaLota >99% chance
51.1%152,546
Christopher Gallant
48.9%145,869
93% counted

District 2

Andrew Garbarino >99% chance
51.6%128,184
Patrick Halpin
48.4%120,263
85% counted

District 3

Tom Suozzi won
55.0%149,547
Michael LiPetri Jr.
45.0%122,442
98% counted

District 4

Laura Gillen won
56.3%162,077
Jeanine Driscoll
43.5%125,333
97% counted

District 5

Gregory Meeks won
80.7%129,931
George Marsh
19.3%31,082
99% counted

District 6

Grace Meng won
69.2%92,474
Joseph Chou
30.8%41,225
96% counted

District 7

Claire Valdez won
83.6%135,179
Melvin Rivera
15.1%24,370
Priscilla Ghaznavi
1.3%2,155
90% counted

District 8

Hakeem Jeffries won
80.0%128,197
Lewis Mizrahi
20.0%31,969
93% counted

District 9

Yvette Clarke won
82.8%146,503
Joel Anabilah-Azumah
17.2%30,378
99% counted

District 10

Brad Lander won
84.0%167,343
Jennifer Moore
16.0%31,912
95% counted

District 11

Nicole Malliotakis won
56.2%101,719
Michael DeCillis
43.8%79,370
91% counted

District 12

Micah Lasher won
77.4%193,614
Caroline Shinkle
20.1%50,212
Karen Ortiz
1.4%3,429
99% counted

District 13

Darializa Avila Chevalier won
88.5%141,014
Manual Williams
11.5%18,308
84% counted

District 14

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez won
78.4%107,129
Diamant Hysenaj
21.6%29,505
99% counted

District 15

Ritchie Torres won
77.0%93,812
Stylo Sapaskis
10.7%13,004
Andre Easton
8.7%10,647
99% counted

District 16

George Latimer won
82.3%77,759
Joseph Cinquemani
17.7%16,733
37% counted

District 17

Cait Conley >99% chance
52.2%133,219
Michael Lawler
47.8%121,881
85% counted

District 18

Pat Ryan won
62.9%168,846
Jackie Auringer
37.1%99,522
97% counted

District 19

Josh Riley won
59.7%146,047
Peter Oberacker
40.3%98,733
91% counted

District 20

Paul Tonko won
63.7%180,668
Ralph Ambrosio
36.3%103,135
94% counted

District 21

Anthony Constantino won
51.0%139,944
Blake Gendebien
49.0%134,399
96% counted

District 22

John Mannion won
58.0%155,048
Kailee Buller
42.0%112,187
96% counted

District 23

Nick Langworthy won
59.7%166,608
Aaron Gies
40.3%112,442
92% counted

District 24

Claudia Tenney won
60.3%167,490
Alissa Ellman
39.7%110,263
95% counted

District 25

Joseph Morelle won
63.0%176,301
Virginia McIntyre
37.0%103,422
93% counted

District 26

Timothy Kennedy won
65.5%156,524
Dennis Hannon
34.5%82,306
97% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Kings592,49595%D +18.5—
Suffolk530,33689%D +10.1D +15.1
Nassau525,64697%D +11.4D +14.7
Queens482,42899%D +24.7D +13.7
New York468,20192%D +0.4—
Erie333,91697%D +7.0D +3.9
Monroe271,09393%D +7.5D +17.5
Bronx235,404100%D +24.2—
Onondaga167,18097%D +8.2D +13.5
Westchester147,91242%D +21.9D +24.4
Richmond133,43089%D +9.6D +10.0
Rockland122,79497%D +3.1D +0.9
Orange122,64397%D +29.2D +28.7
Albany115,52197%D +12.6D +15.0
Dutchess112,80397%D +15.3D +20.9
Saratoga100,24391%D +11.4D +17.4
Niagara76,58297%D +5.9D +3.3
Oneida75,78395%D +13.9D +17.1
Ulster75,75597%D +14.6D +15.3
Rensselaer61,79597%D +13.0—
Schenectady52,40891%D +15.5D +20.4
Ontario46,90897%D +3.1D +15.6
Chautauqua42,69393%D +2.2D +13.3
Putnam42,24497%D +11.7D +15.4
Broome36,31597%D +35.4—
Oswego35,10982%D +9.7D +19.8
Tompkins34,90397%D +7.5—
St. Lawrence34,65097%D +24.4—
Steuben34,61197%EvenD +11.0
Wayne32,85797%D +2.3D +16.3
Jefferson29,41197%D +0.7—
Columbia28,62597%D +12.7—
Clinton28,40797%D +19.7—
Warren28,24095%D +16.6—
Chemung28,20497%R +1.4D +11.0
Cayuga27,61597%D +4.0D +12.4
Cattaraugus26,40197%D +1.3D +10.7
Madison25,87693%D +5.8D +9.9
Livingston24,48397%D +2.0D +14.7
Sullivan24,20597%D +23.1—
Washington22,31397%D +15.8—
Herkimer21,40797%D +18.0—
Genesee21,40497%R +0.1D +10.9
Greene18,98597%D +13.5—
Fulton17,95197%D +22.2—
Delaware17,81297%D +9.1—
Chenango17,07197%D +11.1—
Cortland16,06597%D +9.8—
Franklin15,31297%D +23.4—
Montgomery15,08490%D +19.1—
Essex14,57997%D +14.5—
Wyoming14,33789%D +0.8D +9.8
Orleans13,37197%D +0.9D +11.2
Schoharie12,33891%D +15.8—
Seneca12,05397%D +1.9D +7.9
Lewis9,83297%D +19.8—
Yates8,19897%D +1.5D +13.8
Schuyler7,55097%D +0.8D +8.7
Allegany6,73297%D +4.7D +14.3
Otsego6,24027%D +33.8—
Tioga4,70523%D +46.2—
Hamilton2,79297%D +14.9—