Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New York · U.S. House

New York 18th District

Pat Ryan wins. Called.

97% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Pat Ryan D won 168,846 62.9%
Jackie Auringer R 99,522 37.1%
Total268,368

399 of 402 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Orange 122,643 D +20.8 R +8.4 D +29.2 97%
Dutchess 95,322 D +26.5 D +10.0 D +16.5 97%
Ulster 50,403 D +36.8 D +21.7 D +15.1 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+791 votes268,368D +25.8
+13,804 votes267,577D +25.8
+5,529 votes253,773D +26.5
+6,492 votes248,244D +26.9
+6,935 votes241,752D +26.1
+11,616 votes234,817D +25.4
+465 votes223,201D +25.8
+1,768 votes222,736D +25.8
+18,180 votes220,968D +26.0
+3,312 votes202,788D +27.6
+20,084 votes199,476D +27.7
+5,532 votes179,392D +30.2