Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New Mexico · U.S. House

New Mexico 1st District

Melanie Stansbury wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Melanie Stansbury D won 179,361 63.6%
Ndidiamaka Okpareke R 102,641 36.4%
Total282,002

1,305 of 1,305 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Bernalillo 192,924 D +37.2 D +23.9 D +13.3 99%
Sandoval 57,060 D +15.0 D +2.7 D +12.3 100%
Valencia 10,679 D +3.7 R +19.8 D +23.4 100%
Lincoln 7,581 R +24.4 R +39.2 D +14.8 100%
Torrance 5,440 R +16.7 R +39.0 D +22.3 100%
Santa Fe 4,329 R +18.1 R +32.4 D +14.3 100%
Chaves 1,593 R +55.9 R +68.6 D +12.7 100%
Guadalupe 1,465 D +35.8 D +0.7 D +35.1 100%
De Baca 708 R +33.3 R +51.8 D +18.5 100%
Otero 223 D +71.3 D +29.4 D +41.9 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,440 votes282,002D +27.2
+4 votes280,562D +27.1
+274 votes280,558D +27.1
+17 votes280,284D +27.1
+1,353 votes280,267D +27.1
+1,524 votes278,914D +26.8
+1,154 votes277,390D +26.9
+228 votes276,236D +26.8
+4,210 votes276,008D +26.8
+1,270 votes271,798D +27.3
+1,809 votes270,528D +27.6
Melanie Stansbury wins——