Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Arizona · U.S. House

Arizona 5th District

Lamb leads by 6,739 votes. Not called.

86% counted

Our forecast: Mark Lamb, 96% chance of winning. Projected finish Lamb +3.9. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 21 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Mark Lamb R 143,661 51.2%
Elizabeth Lee D 136,922 48.8%
Total280,583

173 of 173 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Maricopa 230,883 D +0.4 R +17.5 D +17.8 87%
Pinal 49,700 R +15.2 R +32.2 D +17.0 84%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+4,291 votes280,583R +2.4
+4,697 votes276,292R +2.3
+3,129 votes271,595R +2.4
+27,047 votes268,466R +2.2
+10,742 votes241,419D +0.8
+15,279 votes230,677D +2.7
+8,710 votes215,398D +4.2
+1,357 votes206,688D +4.3
+170,859 votes205,331D +4.6
+34,472 votes34,472R +6.2