Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. House

Florida 26th District

Diaz-Balart leads by 1,772 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Mario Diaz-Balart, 98% chance of winning. Projected finish Diaz-Balart +0.8. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 13 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Mario Diaz-Balart R 114,547 49.9%
Nicole Locklin D 112,775 49.1%
Deborah Meidinger Hosey NPA 2,348 1.0%
Total229,670

108 of 685 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Miami-Dade 119,569 R +21.8 R +38.9 D +17.0 100%
Broward 110,101 D +22.1 D +7.4 D +14.7 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+813 votes229,670R +0.8
+9 votes228,857R +0.8
+602 votes228,848R +0.8
+117 votes228,246R +0.9
+293 votes228,129R +0.8
+1,306 votes227,836R +0.8
+2,461 votes226,530R +0.8
+6,617 votes224,069R +0.9
+3,296 votes217,452R +1.2
+3,520 votes214,156R +1.1
+13,565 votes210,636R +0.7
+13,734 votes197,071R +1.3