Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Montana · U.S. House

Montana 1st District

Sam Forstag wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Sam Forstag D won 132,003 50.3%
Aaron Flint R 122,694 46.8%
Nick Sheedy L 7,522 2.9%
Total262,219

120 of 350 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 8:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Missoula 60,421 D +39.5 D +22.2 D +17.2 100%
Gallatin 55,949 D +21.8 D +3.3 D +18.5 100%
Flathead 51,788 R +22.0 R +34.7 D +12.7 100%
Ravalli 23,896 R +28.0 R +41.7 D +13.7 96%
Silver Bow 14,853 D +28.1 D +7.3 D +20.8 99%
Lake 13,802 R +10.2 R +20.6 D +10.4 98%
Lincoln 9,842 R +46.6 R +54.6 D +8.0 99%
Sanders 6,548 R +47.8 R +56.6 D +8.8 93%
Madison 5,233 R +31.6 R +46.4 D +14.8 98%
Beaverhead 4,506 R +34.2 R +44.9 D +10.7 93%
Deer Lodge 3,963 D +18.2 D +1.0 D +17.2 94%
Glacier 3,927 D +36.5 D +20.4 D +16.1 100%
Powell 2,611 R +42.9 R +55.3 D +12.4 96%
Mineral 2,392 R +36.0 R +49.7 D +13.6 100%
Granite 1,828 R +29.6 R +45.3 D +15.6 100%
Pondera 660 R +31.7 R +33.7 D +2.0 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+7,559 votes262,219D +3.7
+12,876 votes254,660D +2.9
+2,509 votes241,784D +2.9
+833 votes239,275D +2.8
+32,764 votes238,442D +2.7
+292 votes205,678D +5.8
+144 votes205,386D +5.9
+9,935 votes205,242D +5.9
+136 votes195,307D +8.6
+88 votes195,171D +8.6
+188 votes195,083D +8.6
+17 votes194,895D +8.7