Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Texas

2 races undecided, about 98% counted, 5 changed party.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spread

Texas counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 House margin this year 2024 president margin Starr Zapata Maverick McMullen Duval R for president, D here: 23 D for both: 12 R for both: 219 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

250 moved toward Democrats, 4 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +11.0.

24 far from the pattern
  • Starr: 57 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Zapata: 56 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 81% counted
  • Maverick: 36 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 98% counted
  • McMullen: 31 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Duval: 31 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Fayette: 28 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Hidalgo: 26 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Webb: 24 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Texas counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 R +100 R +80 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 D +80 D +100 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Fayette Jim Hogg Webb Travis Kenedy Was R, now D: 13 D both times: 17 R both times: 139 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternStill under 90% countedFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

169 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +15.1.

11 far from the pattern
  • Fayette: 32 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Jim Hogg: 23 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Webb: 21 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Travis: 20 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Kenedy: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 99% counted
  • Zapata: 20 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 81% counted
  • Maverick: 19 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 98% counted
  • Liberty: 19 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How Texas's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 Change in margin Since 2024: 254 counties, middle D +11.0 Since 2022: 169 counties, middle D +15.1 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

19 far from the pattern
  • Starr: D +78.0 since 2024, 67 points from the middle
  • Zapata: D +74.9 since 2024, 64 points from the middle
  • Maverick: D +56.4 since 2024, 45 points from the middle
  • Duval: D +52.4 since 2024, 41 points from the middle
  • Hidalgo: D +49.9 since 2024, 39 points from the middle
  • Jim Hogg: D +47.5 since 2024, 37 points from the middle
  • Webb: D +47.5 since 2024, 37 points from the middle
  • Fayette: D +45.5 since 2022, 30 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +26.2—
GovernorD +21.1D +18.3

Statewide

U.S. Senate

James Talarico won
55.1%5,445,185
Ken Paxton
43.0%4,249,949
Ted Brown
1.9%190,527
99% counted

Governor

Gina Hinojosa won
52.8%5,230,988
Greg Abbott
45.7%4,525,046
Pat Dixon
1.6%154,030
99% counted

Congress

District 1

Nathaniel Moran won
69.0%181,987
Yolanda Prince
31.0%81,598
98% counted

District 2

Steve Toth >99% chance
51.0%144,748
Shaun Finnie
49.0%139,167
99% counted

District 3

Keith Self won
52.7%169,243
Evan Hunt
47.3%151,667
99% counted

District 4

Pat Fallon won
56.1%171,652
Jason Pearce
43.9%134,563
99% counted

District 5

Lance Gooden won
51.5%130,278
Chelsey Hockett
48.5%122,855
99% counted

District 6

Jake Ellzey won
51.5%140,014
Danny Minton
48.5%131,902
99% counted

District 7

Lizzie Fletcher won
70.8%160,454
Alexander Hale
27.5%62,387
Espoir Ngabo
1.6%3,652
99% counted

District 8

Jessica Steinmann won
53.2%141,786
Laura Jones
46.8%124,680
99% counted

District 9

Leticia Gutierrez won
57.6%98,079
Alex Mealer
42.4%72,340
92% counted

District 10

Chris Gober won
53.8%161,518
Caitlin Rourk
46.2%138,859
99% counted

District 11

August Pfluger won
59.5%138,627
Claire Reynolds
40.5%94,353
98% counted

District 12

Craig Goldman won
53.1%144,438
Angela Prilliman
46.9%127,456
98% counted

District 13

Ronny Jackson won
65.3%158,134
Mark Nair
34.7%84,197
99% counted

District 14

Randy Weber won
54.0%152,619
Thurman Bartie
46.0%129,934
99% counted

District 15

Bobby Pulido won
62.3%126,204
Monica De La Cruz
37.7%76,305
99% counted

District 16

Veronica Escobar won
70.8%138,543
Adam Bauman
29.2%57,247
99% counted

District 17

Pete Sessions won
53.6%143,524
Casey Shepard
46.4%124,433
99% counted

District 18

Christian Menefee won
86.0%193,149
Ronald Whitfield
14.0%31,334
99% counted

District 19

Tom Sell won
69.5%154,079
Kyle Rable
30.5%67,674
99% counted

District 20

Joaquin Castro won
77.6%149,397
Edgardo Baez
22.4%43,097
88% counted

District 21

Mark Teixeira won
54.5%194,302
Kristin Hook
45.5%162,088
99% counted

District 22

Trever Nehls won
51.8%150,166
Marquette Greene-Scott
48.2%139,611
99% counted

District 23

Katy Stout won
52.1%142,032
Brandon Herrera
44.0%120,095
Ben Mendoza
3.9%10,610
99% counted

District 24

Beth Van Duyne won
53.4%171,751
Kevin Burge
46.6%149,697
99% counted

District 25

Roger Williams won
53.7%142,721
Dione Sims
46.3%122,854
97% counted

District 26

Brandon Gill won
54.5%182,648
Steven Shook
44.2%147,944
Phil Gray
1.3%4,308
99% counted

District 27

Michael Cloud >99% chance
50.7%144,474
Tanya Lloyd
49.3%140,549
98% counted

District 28

Henry Cuellar won
66.4%118,963
Tano Tijerina
29.1%52,225
Marlon Duran
4.5%8,105
99% counted

District 29

Sylvia Garcia won
79.9%133,989
Martha Fierro
20.1%33,619
93% counted

District 30

Frederick Haynes won
82.6%186,871
Everett Jackson
17.4%39,247
97% counted

District 31

John Carter won
53.8%164,012
Justin Early
44.8%136,734
Greg Stoker
1.4%4,227
99% counted

District 32

Jace Yarbrough won
51.5%142,834
Dan Barrios
48.5%134,781
99% counted

District 33

Colin Allred won
78.6%150,891
Patrick Gillespie
21.4%41,157
95% counted

District 34

Vicente Gonzalez won
55.6%112,667
Eric Flores
39.8%80,572
Eddie Espinoza
2.3%4,740
98% counted

District 35

Johnny Garcia won
55.4%139,984
Carlos De La Cruz
44.6%112,574
94% counted

District 36

Brian Babin won
53.6%138,008
Rhonda Hart
46.4%119,681
99% counted

District 37

Greg Casar won
83.8%254,957
Lauren Peña
16.2%49,469
99% counted

District 38

Jon Bonck won
51.5%157,261
Melissa McDonough
47.3%144,397
Alex McMenemy
1.1%3,443
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Harris1,374,17298%D +22.2D +21.7
Dallas774,48198%D +17.2—
Tarrant724,43198%D +17.1—
Bexar649,37694%D +21.3D +16.5
Travis533,292100%D +10.5D +5.5
Collin450,536100%D +16.0D +18.8
Denton391,416100%D +14.1—
Fort Bend324,620100%D +19.8D +21.6
Williamson274,90599%D +14.4—
Montgomery256,425100%D +18.0D +25.1
El Paso215,75599%D +26.4D +15.4
Hidalgo202,841100%D +49.9D +31.6
Brazoria140,570100%D +18.0—
Galveston133,953100%D +13.5—
Hays117,816100%D +20.3D +17.3
Bell109,768100%D +13.3—
Lubbock102,506100%D +14.1—
Cameron101,650100%D +36.3D +26.8
Nueces98,89592%D +15.9D +11.0
Comal88,524100%D +11.1D +14.2
Smith88,267100%D +11.1D +17.5
Ellis87,011100%D +18.0—
McLennan82,411100%D +12.7D +17.3
Brazos79,323100%D +21.8D +25.8
Parker75,838100%D +8.0—
Jefferson71,885100%D +14.3—
Guadalupe69,612100%D +17.5D +19.8
Johnson68,868100%D +16.1—
Kaufman60,866100%D +23.1D +31.9
Webb58,750100%D +47.5D +4.2
Rockwall53,425100%D +12.0D +17.5
Grayson53,384100%D +10.0D +14.9
Randall53,146100%D +12.8D +16.0
Midland43,428100%D +13.3—
Taylor42,603100%D +10.1—
Gregg37,872100%D +14.5D +19.1
Hunt37,097100%D +15.6D +19.2
Bastrop36,514100%D +22.4D +23.3
Tom Green36,03494%D +10.4—
Wichita34,387100%D +13.3D +16.5
Henderson30,877100%D +10.0D +13.9
Wise30,834100%D +11.3—
Hood30,11392%D +6.1—
Ector29,319100%D +26.0—
Victoria28,098100%D +12.4D +18.9
Bowie27,38886%D +10.3D +14.1
Angelina27,031100%D +15.8D +20.9
Orange26,220100%D +10.2—
Kendall25,845100%D +7.0D +11.1
Potter25,658100%D +19.4D +22.9
Liberty25,313100%D +27.6D +32.0
Harrison24,003100%D +10.1D +14.6
Burnet24,171100%D +8.6—
Waller23,550100%D +18.1D +34.4
Kerr23,280100%D +10.0D +14.3
Van Zandt22,136100%D +7.9D +10.2
Wilson21,85193%D +12.0D +14.5
Walker21,217100%D +15.3D +20.7
Nacogdoches21,101100%D +17.5D +21.3
Hardin20,949100%D +8.0D +11.2
Medina21,113100%D +14.6D +23.5
San Patricio19,970100%D +19.9D +16.5
Starr20,440100%D +78.0D +20.9
Wood19,67690%D +4.6D +8.9
Chambers19,320100%D +13.7—
Coryell18,822100%D +13.0—
Polk17,436100%D +9.2D +12.3
Rusk17,207100%D +11.4D +16.3
Cooke17,061100%D +9.0—
Cherokee16,555100%D +12.8—
Lamar16,281100%D +9.9D +15.6
Navarro16,131100%D +14.9—
Upshur15,440100%D +9.3D +11.0
Washington15,324100%D +6.6D +15.2
Anderson15,141100%D +10.8—
Caldwell14,623100%D +26.9D +27.7
Gillespie14,47290%D +7.3D +10.1
Erath13,921100%D +11.6—
Atascosa14,345100%D +30.5D +12.9
Fayette13,724100%D +38.2D +45.5
Hopkins13,278100%D +13.4D +18.0
Hill13,068100%D +10.4—
Brown12,961100%D +6.3—
Fannin12,95692%D +9.9D +12.5
Austin12,661100%D +10.2D +17.1
Wharton12,494100%D +11.2D +15.9
Jasper12,031100%D +9.1D +13.8
Llano11,634100%D +3.1—
Grimes11,621100%D +12.0D +15.6
Maverick12,16998%D +56.4D +39.2
Val Verde11,515100%D +31.1D +23.3
Cass10,836100%D +5.6D +9.1
Matagorda10,835100%D +14.6D +18.2
Jim Wells10,747100%D +35.6D +25.1
Aransas10,459100%D +8.3D +10.7
Palo Pinto10,394100%D +8.3—
San Jacinto10,36290%D +10.7D +12.6
Bandera10,165100%D +6.0D +8.4
Lampasas9,095100%D +7.2—
Montague8,628100%D +5.7D +6.5
Titus8,605100%D +24.1D +25.9
Milam8,584100%D +10.5D +14.9
Panola8,530100%D +8.5D +11.4
Lavaca8,460100%D +7.5D +12.5
Colorado8,26291%D +8.7D +16.1
Kleberg8,092100%D +22.2D +19.4
Burleson7,788100%D +10.3D +13.8
Uvalde8,251100%D +24.2D +21.8
Bosque7,671100%D +6.3—
Hale7,536100%D +20.3—
Blanco7,505100%D +5.9D +6.5
Shelby7,439100%D +12.6D +16.0
Houston7,379100%D +5.3D +10.4
Freestone7,291100%D +10.0—
Tyler7,218100%D +4.3D +7.9
Limestone7,194100%D +12.6D +15.2
Bee7,120100%D +28.0D +17.7
Leon7,01184%D +6.5D +9.4
Howard6,971100%D +15.2—
Robertson6,906100%D +12.3D +16.6
Lee6,844100%D +12.4D +19.2
Gonzales6,639100%D +23.2D +29.4
Young6,542100%D +6.7—
Hockley6,399100%D +12.6—
Eastland6,332100%D +7.5—
Calhoun6,268100%D +13.2D +14.9
DeWitt6,190100%D +10.5D +14.9
Hutchinson6,041100%D +10.3D +13.2
Trinity5,775100%D +8.1D +9.5
Gray5,489100%D +12.2D +16.0
Callahan5,358100%D +5.4—
Jones5,214100%D +7.9—
Comanche5,108100%D +8.8—
Rains5,063100%D +6.0D +10.5
Jackson4,986100%D +9.3D +15.2
Falls4,920100%D +8.9D +14.7
Gaines4,788100%D +12.8—
Clay4,625100%D +6.0D +5.9
Willacy4,626100%D +34.0D +20.5
Somervell4,286100%D +3.4—
Madison4,282100%D +12.1D +17.9
Newton4,267100%D +5.8D +7.5
Sabine4,254100%D +3.6D +6.1
Camp4,243100%D +13.6D +16.8
Red River4,220100%D +9.7D +12.6
Franklin4,209100%D +7.0D +11.5
Morris4,168100%D +10.4D +11.4
Scurry4,137100%D +7.2—
Andrews4,092100%D +20.2—
Moore4,058100%D +26.6D +31.3
Karnes4,012100%D +13.9D +15.9
Archer4,004100%D +4.0D +6.0
Marion3,810100%D +5.7D +7.6
Live Oak3,81979%D +11.3D +14.1
Nolan3,698100%D +8.9—
Brewster3,783100%D +18.5D +18.4
Frio3,681100%D +29.5D +17.8
Deaf Smith3,505100%D +27.1D +30.9
Hamilton3,534100%D +4.5—
Jack3,373100%D +5.3—
Wilbarger3,362100%D +9.8D +13.6
Goliad3,329100%D +13.1D +9.7
Lamb3,277100%D +10.1—
Zapata3,35281%D +74.9D +5.7
Coleman3,183100%R +0.3—
Runnels3,176100%D +4.3—
Pecos3,293100%D +25.0D +31.1
Duval3,194100%D +52.4D +10.4
San Augustine3,062100%D +10.8D +12.8
Zavala2,93099%D +30.8D +17.1
Reeves2,932100%D +29.0D +18.7
Stephens2,748100%D +7.0—
McCulloch2,662100%D +5.7—
Terry2,589100%D +14.7—
Dawson2,563100%D +10.8—
Dimmit2,551100%D +33.5D +13.1
Ward2,524100%D +15.2D +18.1
Refugio2,383100%D +12.6D +13.1
Carson2,36482%D +8.4D +9.7
Ochiltree2,316100%D +21.0D +26.0
San Saba2,160100%D +6.0—
Mason2,150100%D +2.1—
Lynn2,111100%D +8.1—
Mills2,125100%D +5.5—
Delta1,999100%D +7.1D +10.3
Kimble1,964100%D +3.4—
Parmer1,957100%D +18.8—
Mitchell1,850100%D +5.3—
Brooks1,846100%D +35.9D +23.3
Presidio2,256100%D +20.9D +21.2
La Salle1,859100%D +35.0D +31.0
Yoakum1,762100%D +20.3—
Swisher1,702100%D +11.1—
Wheeler1,694100%D +5.4D +7.9
Floyd1,630100%D +13.2—
Haskell1,602100%D +3.2—
Hartley1,535100%D +7.5D +9.8
Castro1,513100%D +7.5—
Real1,478100%D +5.0D +10.1
Hansford1,477100%D +12.4D +14.8
Martin1,477100%D +10.8—
Crosby1,474100%D +13.2—
Fisher1,399100%D +1.9—
Bailey1,399100%D +19.3—
Coke1,360100%D +3.4—
Jim Hogg1,358100%D +47.5D +3.5
Winkler1,320100%D +21.2D +25.6
Shackelford1,290100%D +0.5—
Donley1,272100%D +2.6D +4.3
Hemphill1,236100%D +9.8D +10.4
Baylor1,195100%D +6.1D +10.3
Garza1,152100%D +7.5—
Kinney1,192100%D +12.6D +18.9
Sutton1,086100%D +12.4D +18.6
Hardeman1,031100%D +15.2D +18.9
Dallam1,002100%D +20.4D +25.1
Concho1,000100%D +2.7—
Knox995100%D +10.0D +12.3
Crane998100%D +22.3D +25.8
Jeff Davis1,006100%D +7.7D +11.6
Crockett981100%D +13.5D +21.1
Collingsworth94585%D +3.1D +8.5
Lipscomb934100%D +5.3D +7.6
Schleicher90299%D +11.9D +15.1
Armstrong871100%D +3.8D +4.2
Hall815100%D +5.0D +8.9
Upton850100%D +12.3D +14.3
Menard789100%D +4.3—
Edwards79481%D +8.3D +11.1
Culberson822100%D +27.2D +33.8
Hudspeth795100%D +22.9D +23.4
Dickens748100%D +1.5D +6.0
Oldham742100%D +4.4D +5.5
Sherman70599%D +13.7D +17.8
Cochran691100%D +15.1—
Reagan693100%D +20.6D +29.0
Irion649100%R +0.5—
Throckmorton630100%D +4.3—
Briscoe596100%D +5.3D +6.4
Glasscock563100%D +1.6—
Cottle53199%D +5.9D +9.4
Motley51199%D +2.9D +4.9
Stonewall51199%D +3.6—
Roberts452100%D +1.4D +2.5
Sterling449100%D +7.2—
Foard405100%D +5.4D +8.8
Childress376100%D +10.7D +15.3
McMullen370100%D +36.4D +7.2
Kent33799%R +2.0—
Terrell32699%D +4.4D +0.5
Borden30899%R +0.5—
Kenedy15299%D +33.1D +35.4
King11599%D +6.8D +9.7
Loving64100%D +8.2D +11.4