Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Illinois · U.S. House

Illinois 15th District

Mary Miller wins. Called.

89% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Mary Miller R won 170,607 66.1%
Jennifer Todd D 87,681 33.9%
Total258,288

83 of 446 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Madison 36,815 R +17.8 — — 97%
Adams 24,333 R +44.0 R +48.1 D +4.2 97%
Sangamon 22,446 R +17.9 — — 100%
Macon 20,754 R +22.2 — — 97%
Champaign 11,958 R +20.8 — — 71%
Coles 11,520 R +11.9 — — 91%
Christian 11,519 R +38.6 R +47.4 D +8.8 87%
Morgan 10,977 R +26.6 R +32.9 D +6.3 97%
Montgomery 10,061 R +36.1 R +44.8 D +8.8 97%
Logan 9,420 R +39.1 R +42.4 D +3.3 97%
Shelby 9,076 R +57.6 R +61.1 D +3.5 88%
Jersey 8,631 R +42.6 R +51.0 D +8.4 97%
Douglas 6,304 R +39.0 R +46.9 D +7.8 97%
Bond 6,160 R +37.4 R +45.8 D +8.3 97%
Edgar 5,757 R +45.8 R +53.3 D +7.5 97%
Hancock 5,274 R +55.8 R +50.9 R +4.9 97%
McDonough 5,226 R +37.7 — — 97%
Moultrie 5,008 R +46.2 R +49.8 D +3.6 97%
Mason 4,813 R +34.4 R +43.1 D +8.8 97%
Pike 4,302 R +53.5 R +64.8 D +11.2 97%
Cass 4,053 R +31.0 R +44.2 D +13.2 97%
Menard 3,550 R +51.9 R +42.1 R +9.8 64%
Mercer 3,116 R +18.3 — — 97%
Schuyler 2,982 R +46.3 R +47.8 D +1.4 88%
Fulton 2,844 R +38.8 — — 90%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,897 votes258,288R +32.1
+24,333 votes256,391R +31.9
+11,519 votes232,058R +30.6
+2,015 votes220,539R +30.2
+1,582 votes218,524R +30.1
+36,815 votes216,942R +29.9
+26,744 votes180,127R +32.4
+4,053 votes153,383R +32.9
+510 votes149,330R +32.9
+2,982 votes148,820R +32.8
+8,631 votes145,838R +32.5
+3,550 votes137,207R +31.9