Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Montana · U.S. House

Montana 2nd District

Troy Downing wins. Called.

98% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Troy Downing R won 127,291 58.2%
Brian Miller D 70,409 32.2%
Michael Eisenhauer I 17,077 7.8%
Patrick McCracken L 4,000 1.8%
Total218,777

233 of 386 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 8:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Yellowstone 62,660 R +25.2 R +28.0 D +2.8 98%
Lewis and Clark 34,152 R +4.0 R +5.9 D +1.9 97%
Cascade 29,394 R +19.4 R +23.0 D +3.7 95%
Park 9,369 R +3.9 R +8.0 D +4.1 98%
Jefferson 6,788 R +36.8 R +37.6 D +0.8 100%
Carbon 6,071 R +33.2 R +33.5 D +0.3 99%
Fergus 5,363 R +53.4 R +53.1 R +0.3 100%
Hill 5,019 R +16.2 R +19.0 D +2.8 92%
Stillwater 4,517 R +64.1 R +63.3 R +0.8 100%
Custer 4,180 R +46.8 R +50.5 D +3.6 100%
Broadwater 3,719 R +61.4 R +62.0 D +0.6 100%
Richland 3,613 R +66.5 R +69.9 D +3.4 100%
Big Horn 3,471 D +4.3 R +1.8 D +6.0 100%
Dawson 3,362 R +57.9 R +60.5 D +2.6 100%
Valley 3,086 R +54.5 R +52.7 R +1.7 100%
Teton 2,831 R +51.7 R +46.4 R +5.3 100%
Rosebud 2,746 R +42.6 R +38.5 R +4.1 100%
Roosevelt 2,549 R +2.8 R +10.0 D +7.2 100%
Musselshell 2,405 R +73.5 R +73.1 R +0.4 100%
Chouteau 2,277 R +34.0 R +33.5 R +0.6 100%
Blaine 2,163 R +6.9 R +6.2 R +0.7 100%
Sweet Grass 1,911 R +53.8 R +54.6 D +0.8 100%
Phillips 1,697 R +68.8 R +64.0 R +4.9 100%
Toole 1,579 R +58.9 R +58.2 R +0.7 100%
Pondera 1,545 R +49.6 R +47.7 R +1.9 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+899 votes218,777R +28.8
+13,341 votes217,878R +28.7
+5,050 votes204,537R +28.8
+283 votes199,487R +29.1
+88 votes199,204R +29.2
+1,044 votes199,116R +29.3
+215 votes198,072R +29.0
+115 votes197,857R +29.0
+62 votes197,742R +29.0
+652 votes197,680R +29.0
+5,162 votes197,028R +28.9
+449 votes191,866R +28.9