Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

New Mexico

All races decided. The state's House vote has moved D +12.9 since 2024. D +13.2 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 9 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Counties vs. 2024Counties vs. 2022The spreadContests vs. 2024

New Mexico counties vs. 2024

How far has each county moved since the 2024 president?

R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 House margin this year 2024 president margin Guadalupe R for president, D here: 3 D for both: 13 R for both: 17 D for president, R here: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties voting differently for House than for president. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

33 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +14.9.

1 far from the pattern
  • Guadalupe: 20 points toward Democrats of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

New Mexico counties vs. 2022

How far has each county moved since the 2022 House vote?

R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 R +60 R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 D +60 House margin this year 2022 House vote margin Harding Mora Was R, now D: 2 D both times: 14 R both times: 17 Was D, now R: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe patternFar from the pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red for Republicans. The darker squares are counties that changed sides. Above the black line, a county moved toward Democrats.

29 moved toward Democrats, 4 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +11.3.

2 far from the pattern
  • Harding: 25 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted
  • Mora: 20 points toward Republicans of the pattern, 100% counted

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

How New Mexico's counties moved

Did the state move together, or are some counties far from the rest?

R +40 R +20 Even D +20 D +40 Change in margin Since 2024: 33 counties, middle D +14.9 Since 2022: 33 counties, middle D +11.3 Toward Republicans Toward Democrats

Toward DemocratsToward RepublicansMiddle

Right of Even, in blue, moved toward Democrats, which is good for them. Left of it, in red, moved toward Republicans. Bars far from the main hump stand apart from the rest.

4 far from the pattern
  • Mora: R +15.8 since 2022, 27 points from the middle
  • Harding: R +13.8 since 2022, 25 points from the middle
  • San Miguel: R +10.3 since 2022, 22 points from the middle
  • Guadalupe: D +35.1 since 2024, 20 points from the middle

Being far from the pattern is a reason to look, not a finding. Usual causes are a popular or weak candidate, an unopposed race last time, or a batch of ballots still to come.

Every New Mexico contest vs. 2024

How far has each race on the ballot moved since 2024?

R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 R +30 R +20 R +10 Even D +10 D +20 D +30 Margin this year Margin in 2024 Flipped to Democrats: 0 Stayed Democratic: 5 Stayed Republican: 0 Flipped to Republicans: 0

Democrat aheadRepublican aheadNo changeThe pattern

Blue squares are good for Democrats and red squares for Republicans; the darker squares changed sides. Above the black line a race moved toward Democrats, even if it's still in a red square. Below it, toward Republicans.

5 moved toward Democrats, 0 toward Republicans. The middle shift is D +13.3.

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +20.3—
GovernorD +8.5D +8.1
District 1D +14.5D +15.7
District 2D +13.3D +16.8
District 3D +10.7D +6.9

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Ben Ray Lujan won
63.2%458,007
Larry Marker
36.8%266,260
98% counted

Governor

Deb Haaland won
57.3%415,484
Greggory Hull
42.7%309,210
98% counted

Congress

District 1

Melanie Stansbury won
63.6%179,361
Ndidiamaka Okpareke
36.4%102,641
99% counted

District 2

Gabriel Vasquez won
58.7%123,676
Gregory Cunningham
41.3%86,848
96% counted

District 3

Teresa Fernandez won
61.6%141,081
Martin Zamora
38.4%87,867
99% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Bernalillo248,72896%D +14.9D +15.6
Santa Fe70,291100%D +10.3D +4.8
Doña Ana66,639100%D +20.3D +17.5
Sandoval63,963100%D +12.1D +12.3
San Juan38,397100%D +16.7D +11.4
Valencia26,000100%D +19.3D +16.5
McKinley19,768100%D +24.5D +10.7
Otero17,960100%D +14.9D +17.9
Eddy16,136100%D +14.5D +11.6
Chaves15,431100%D +17.5D +13.7
Taos13,329100%D +13.8D +0.4
Lea13,298100%D +21.4D +22.4
Rio Arriba12,490100%D +17.9R +4.1
Grant11,531100%D +14.9D +11.3
Curry10,316100%D +9.9D +10.8
Los Alamos9,82792%D +5.6D +8.4
San Miguel8,965100%D +16.8R +10.3
Lincoln7,581100%D +14.8D +15.3
Cibola7,228100%D +14.3D +11.2
Luna5,945100%D +26.6D +18.9
Socorro5,773100%D +20.1D +13.2
Torrance5,440100%D +22.3D +17.7
Roosevelt4,783100%D +10.1D +9.7
Sierra4,753100%D +11.6D +14.1
Colfax4,744100%D +13.8D +0.7
Quay2,787100%D +9.0D +4.4
Mora2,185100%D +15.9R +15.8
Catron1,942100%D +10.2D +9.8
Guadalupe1,465100%D +35.1D +24.1
Hidalgo1,429100%D +17.8D +12.3
Union1,265100%D +10.6D +5.3
De Baca708100%D +18.5D +8.3
Harding377100%D +6.1R +13.8