Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Pennsylvania · U.S. House

Pennsylvania 16th District

George Kelly wins. Called.

84% counted
CandidateVotesShare
George Kelly R won 154,144 53.9%
Justin Wagner D 131,637 46.1%
Total285,781

172 of 210 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Erie 94,484 D +14.2 R +1.0 D +15.2 84%
Butler 85,434 R +17.2 R +32.5 D +15.3 86%
Mercer 38,856 R +14.1 R +30.4 D +16.3 80%
Lawrence 31,222 R +17.8 R +34.0 D +16.2 81%
Crawford 28,730 R +27.8 R +39.6 D +11.8 81%
Venango 7,055 R +31.3 R +41.9 D +10.6 82%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+9 votes285,781R +7.9
+52 votes285,772R +7.9
+684 votes285,720R +7.9
+526 votes285,036R +8.0
+18,967 votes284,510R +8.0
George Kelly wins——
+1,316 votes265,543R +8.3
+405 votes264,227R +8.2
+18,562 votes263,822R +8.1
+14,606 votes245,260R +8.0
+14,448 votes230,654R +5.7
+4,757 votes216,206R +6.1