Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Kentucky · U.S. House

Kentucky 2nd District

S. Brett Guthrie wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
S. Brett Guthrie R won 145,139 62.8%
Megan Wingfield D 81,111 35.1%
Thomas Loecken I 4,807 2.1%
Total231,057

Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Warren 37,779 R +10.1 R +24.7 D +14.6 100%
Hardin 33,104 R +18.2 R +29.8 D +11.6 100%
Daviess 31,521 R +16.6 R +32.4 D +15.8 100%
Bullitt 26,588 R +36.4 R +51.7 D +15.3 100%
Jefferson 16,352 R +11.4 R +20.8 D +9.4 100%
Barren 11,948 R +41.5 R +53.4 D +11.9 100%
Meade 8,969 R +38.1 R +52.9 D +14.8 100%
Muhlenberg 8,853 R +38.3 R +55.0 D +16.7 100%
Grayson 6,981 R +51.3 R +62.6 D +11.3 100%
Nelson 6,979 R +27.3 R +37.9 D +10.6 100%
Ohio 6,545 R +49.4 R +61.1 D +11.7 100%
Breckinridge 6,509 R +49.3 R +58.9 D +9.6 100%
Hart 5,145 R +45.5 R +60.6 D +15.1 100%
LaRue 4,840 R +53.2 R +61.2 D +8.0 100%
Butler 4,030 R +61.1 R +67.1 D +6.0 100%
Green 3,760 R +67.3 R +73.1 D +5.8 100%
Edmonson 3,596 R +51.9 R +63.7 D +11.8 100%
Hancock 3,487 R +39.0 R +48.4 D +9.4 100%
McLean 3,253 R +50.4 R +56.7 D +6.3 100%
Logan 818 R +44.5 R +56.5 D +12.0 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+5 votes231,057R +28.3
+3,253 votes231,052R +28.3
+6,276 votes227,799R +28.0
+6,545 votes221,523R +27.4
+4,840 votes214,978R +26.8
+8,853 votes210,138R +26.2
+38,361 votes201,285R +25.6
+33,104 votes162,924R +20.2
+6,979 votes129,820R +20.7
+699 votes122,841R +20.4
+31,521 votes122,142R +20.6
+7,238 votes90,621R +22.0