Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Michigan · U.S. House

Michigan 4th District

McCann leads by 6,711 votes. Not called.

97% counted

Our forecast: Sean McCann, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish McCann +2.6. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Sean McCann D 186,195 50.1%
Bill Huizenga R 179,484 48.3%
Shafina Barnett G 5,695 1.5%
Total371,374

178 of 256 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Kalamazoo 116,191 D +30.2 D +21.2 D +9.0 98%
Ottawa 102,866 R +17.5 R +22.9 D +5.3 100%
Allegan 60,503 R +20.6 R +27.6 D +7.0 100%
Van Buren 33,335 R +5.7 R +15.4 D +9.6 96%
Calhoun 32,964 D +3.2 R +7.0 D +10.2 89%
Berrien 25,515 D +12.8 D +6.8 D +6.0 93%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,514 votes371,374D +1.8
+28,432 votes369,860D +1.8
+19,752 votes341,428R +0.2
+4,903 votes321,676R +1.1
+19,000 votes316,773R +1.7
+4,355 votes297,773R +4.1
+1,044 votes293,418R +3.9
+326 votes292,374R +3.8
+17,155 votes292,048R +3.7
+9,509 votes274,893R +5.1
+259 votes265,384R +3.7
+528 votes265,125R +3.8