Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Texas · U.S. House

Texas 27th District

Cloud leads by 3,925 votes. Not called.

98% counted

Our forecast: Michael Cloud, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish Cloud +1.1. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Michael Cloud R 144,474 50.7%
Tanya Lloyd D 140,549 49.3%
Total285,023

323 of 323 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 3:43 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Hays 64,164 D +29.0 D +7.4 D +21.6 100%
Travis 36,906 D +51.6 D +33.1 D +18.5 100%
Bastrop 35,854 D +3.7 R +18.6 D +22.3 100%
Victoria 28,098 R +30.5 R +42.9 D +12.4 100%
Washington 15,324 R +48.5 R +55.1 D +6.6 100%
Caldwell 14,623 D +12.3 R +14.6 D +26.9 100%
Fayette 13,724 R +23.7 R +61.9 D +38.2 99%
Austin 12,661 R +53.0 R +63.1 D +10.2 100%
Wharton 12,494 R +40.9 R +52.2 D +11.2 100%
Matagorda 10,835 R +36.4 R +51.0 D +14.6 100%
Nueces 10,770 D +35.2 D +16.3 D +18.9 67%
Colorado 8,262 R +48.8 R +57.6 D +8.7 91%
San Patricio 7,463 R +34.7 R +50.7 D +16.1 100%
Calhoun 6,268 R +39.3 R +52.4 D +13.2 100%
Jackson 4,986 R +61.9 R +71.1 D +9.3 100%
Aransas 2,280 R +53.0 R +53.6 D +0.6 100%
Refugio 311 R +20.3 R +39.2 D +18.9 99%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,073 votes285,023R +1.4
+2,821 votes283,950R +1.5
+5 votes281,129R +1.9
+6 votes281,124R +1.9
+3 votes281,118R +1.9
+1,175 votes281,115R +1.9
+4,207 votes279,940R +2.0
+636 votes275,733R +2.5
+2,142 votes275,097R +2.7
+3,355 votes272,955R +2.2
+1,626 votes269,600R +1.6
+1,614 votes267,974R +1.5