Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New York · U.S. House

New York 1st District

LaLota leads by 6,677 votes. Not called.

93% counted

Our forecast: Nicholas LaLota, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish LaLota +3.1. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 17 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Nicholas LaLota R 152,546 51.1%
Christopher Gallant D 145,869 48.9%
Total298,415

560 of 561 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Suffolk 298,415 R +2.2 R +10.2 D +8.0 93%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+308 votes298,415R +2.2
+596 votes298,107R +2.2
+2,647 votes297,511R +2.2
+3,280 votes294,864R +2.2
+2,332 votes291,584R +2.0
+1,286 votes289,252R +2.0
+3,060 votes287,966R +2.0
+1,583 votes284,906R +2.0
+2,665 votes283,323R +2.2
+4,259 votes280,658R +2.2
+3,639 votes276,399R +1.9
+6,475 votes272,760R +1.7