Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New Jersey · U.S. House

New Jersey 3rd District

Herbert Conaway wins. Called.

94% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Herbert Conaway D won 172,448 62.7%
Michael McGuire R 97,377 35.4%
Ryan Kelly UNA 3,658 1.3%
Steven Welzer G 1,700 0.6%
Total275,183

611 of 661 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Burlington 158,075 D +33.7 D +16.8 D +17.0 96%
Monmouth 58,906 R +0.3 R +18.4 D +18.1 86%
Mercer 58,202 D +40.3 D +16.8 D +23.5 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,829 votes275,183D +27.8
+1,326 votes273,354D +27.6
+460 votes272,028D +27.4
+788 votes271,568D +27.4
+7,116 votes270,780D +27.3
+1,758 votes263,664D +26.0
+15,475 votes261,906D +25.9
+161 votes246,431D +26.5
+10,324 votes246,270D +26.5
+8,739 votes235,946D +27.6
+9,366 votes227,207D +27.8
+12,857 votes217,841D +28.3