Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Virginia · U.S. House

Virginia 5th District

John McGuire III wins. Called.

97% counted
CandidateVotesShare
John McGuire III R won 182,967 50.4%
Tom Perriello D 174,253 48.0%
Cooke Harvey I 5,817 1.6%
Total363,037

304 of 304 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Albemarle 58,237 D +44.3 D +34.6 D +9.7 97%
Lynchburg City 29,252 D +5.1 R +8.0 D +13.1 97%
Pittsylvania 26,214 R +35.6 R +43.4 D +7.7 97%
Campbell 24,167 R +41.1 R +49.0 D +7.8 97%
Charlottesville City 19,657 D +79.2 D +70.0 D +9.1 97%
Louisa 19,200 R +15.2 R +26.4 D +11.3 97%
Goochland 17,486 R +10.7 R +18.8 D +8.1 97%
Powhatan 17,204 R +38.0 R +44.5 D +6.4 97%
Bedford 15,917 R +41.9 R +47.0 D +5.0 97%
Danville City 14,096 D +31.5 D +21.2 D +10.2 97%
Amherst 13,960 R +27.2 R +36.7 D +9.5 97%
Halifax 13,902 R +13.4 R +21.2 D +7.8 97%
Fluvanna 13,830 D +8.6 R +6.3 D +14.9 97%
Mecklenburg 12,747 R +15.8 R +20.9 D +5.1 97%
Hanover 12,316 R +28.5 R +34.7 D +6.2 97%
Appomattox 7,807 R +45.7 R +51.4 D +5.8 97%
Nelson 7,739 D +6.0 R +7.6 D +13.5 97%
Prince Edward 7,694 D +8.4 R +2.6 D +11.0 97%
Amelia 6,376 R +38.5 R +44.6 D +6.1 97%
Buckingham 6,235 R +12.5 R +23.7 D +11.3 97%
Nottoway 5,199 R +15.4 R +22.5 D +7.2 97%
Charlotte 4,805 R +29.3 R +32.7 D +3.5 97%
Lunenburg 4,571 R +15.6 R +22.9 D +7.3 97%
Cumberland 4,426 R +12.6 R +22.4 D +9.8 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+14 votes363,037R +2.4
+340 votes363,023R +2.4
John McGuire III wins——
+1,132 votes362,683R +2.5
+1,949 votes361,551R +2.6
+1,122 votes359,602R +2.5
+4,406 votes358,480R +2.5
+611 votes354,074R +2.1
+2,954 votes353,463R +2.1
+1,309 votes350,509R +2.0
+1,409 votes349,200R +1.8
+9 votes347,791R +2.0