Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Virginia · U.S. House

Virginia 2nd District

Elaine Luria wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

97% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Elaine Luria D won 178,741 53.1%
Jen Kiggans R 150,095 44.6%
J. Matt Baker I 4,735 1.4%
Geral Staten I 3,020 0.9%
Total336,591

222 of 222 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Virginia Beach City 184,209 D +11.7 D +2.7 D +9.0 97%
Chesapeake City 58,342 R +1.3 R +10.9 D +9.6 97%
Suffolk City 45,427 D +25.0 D +16.1 D +8.9 97%
Isle of Wight 20,637 R +13.4 R +20.0 D +6.6 97%
Accomack 13,892 R +3.2 R +13.4 D +10.2 97%
Northampton 5,976 D +13.2 D +6.2 D +7.0 97%
Southampton 4,805 R +26.8 R +32.5 D +5.7 97%
Franklin City 3,303 D +29.8 D +23.0 D +6.8 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+237 votes336,591D +8.7
+4,176 votes336,354D +8.7
+15,489 votes332,178D +8.1
+962 votes316,689D +6.7
+1,256 votes315,727D +6.6
+239 votes314,471D +6.4
+426 votes314,232D +6.4
+1,316 votes313,806D +6.3
+1,353 votes312,490D +6.2
+5,315 votes311,137D +6.1
+872 votes305,822D +5.7
+223 votes304,950D +5.6