Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

North Carolina

5 races undecided, about 95% counted, 6 changed party.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
U.S. SenateD +23.3D +23.4

Statewide

U.S. Senate

Roy Cooper won
58.7%2,467,963
Michael Whatley
39.1%1,643,088
Shannon Bray
1.4%57,190
96% counted

Congress

District 1

Don Davis won
50.1%156,564
Laurie Buckhout
46.8%146,259
Tom Bailey
3.2%9,917
96% counted

District 2

Deborah Ross won
75.2%245,402
Eugene Douglass
23.5%76,763
Matthew Laszacs
1.3%4,267
98% counted

District 3

Gregory Murphy 91% chance
49.3%117,583
Raymond Smith 9% chance
49.3%117,350
Daniel Cavender
1.4%3,341
96% counted

District 4

Valerie Foushee won
79.1%283,255
Mahesh Ganorkar
18.9%67,799
Guy Meilleur
1.9%6,961
98% counted

District 5

Charles Hubbard 1% chance
48.7%139,034
Virginia Foxx 99% chance
48.7%138,935
Robert Luffman
2.6%7,529
90% counted

District 6

Cyril Jefferson won
51.1%140,001
Addison McDowell
48.9%133,737
95% counted

District 7

David Rouzer >99% chance
49.9%159,985
Kimberly Hardy
49.1%157,560
Maad Abu-Ghazalah
1.0%3,135
96% counted

District 8

Mark Harris >99% chance
50.4%147,094
Colby Watson
48.6%141,915
Robert Whitehead
1.0%2,890
97% counted

District 9

Richard Ojeda won
51.1%138,707
Richard Hudson
48.9%132,692
95% counted

District 10

Patrick Harrigan >99% chance
49.7%146,166
Ashley Bell
48.7%143,137
Steven Feldman
1.6%4,673
97% counted

District 11

Jamie Ager won
57.1%195,637
Jennifer Balkcom
41.3%141,427
Travis Groo
1.6%5,345
94% counted

District 12

Alma Adams won
81.2%219,672
Jack Codiga
18.8%50,864
98% counted

District 13

Paul Barringer won
50.5%159,981
Brad Knott
48.1%152,329
Steven Swinton
1.4%4,479
98% counted

District 14

LaKesha Womack won
51.1%147,388
Tim Moore
48.9%140,973
95% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Wake520,57198%D +18.3D +16.5
Mecklenburg438,62198%D +15.5D +16.9
Guilford216,28298%D +14.5D +17.3
Forsyth151,88098%D +15.9D +20.8
Durham149,52198%D +12.0D +13.5
Buncombe131,05598%D +23.7D +23.6
New Hanover102,60098%D +11.7D +13.7
Union100,36498%D +18.6D +24.0
Cumberland94,82598%D +18.2D +20.8
Johnston88,65698%D +22.4D +23.2
Brunswick86,75298%D +10.6D +13.4
Cabarrus86,42098%D +20.7D +27.1
Gaston82,64698%D +18.9D +23.1
Iredell75,72098%D +17.0D +24.0
Orange71,66698%D +15.0D +12.5
Alamance67,50198%D +17.8D +24.2
Pitt62,42398%D +10.8D +7.5
Davidson60,67390%D +17.4D +20.7
Catawba59,93298%D +16.5D +22.4
Henderson56,92198%D +21.4D +27.7
Rowan50,57192%D +17.6D +22.2
Onslow50,28098%D +16.8D +18.8
Randolph47,53787%D +18.3D +22.4
Moore44,68493%D +13.3D +16.9
Harnett44,94598%D +21.1D +22.5
Chatham42,84398%D +14.3D +15.7
Craven41,76698%D +14.8D +19.6
Nash40,72698%D +16.3D +18.7
Wayne38,52698%D +13.8D +17.4
Lincoln38,25793%D +14.2D +18.3
Cleveland34,48292%D +12.1D +14.9
Carteret34,96298%D +12.9D +16.8
Rockingham34,05992%D +13.4D +12.0
Franklin33,08298%D +14.4D +10.7
Burke30,02588%D +15.3D +15.9
Robeson29,04798%D +19.6R +3.2
Wilson29,35998%D +13.2D +13.1
Haywood28,20093%D +28.2D +27.7
Caldwell27,19486%D +17.7D +19.8
Pender25,64898%D +15.0D +16.5
Stanly24,33891%D +14.6D +20.5
Granville24,40298%D +12.1D +17.0
Surry24,11386%D +17.6D +18.1
Watauga23,72191%D +22.3D +23.8
Rutherford22,87486%D +13.7D +18.1
Wilkes23,59585%D +15.6D +17.6
Lee21,18598%D +23.6D +26.2
Lenoir19,52792%D +7.4D +19.7
Beaufort19,81992%D +12.2D +17.3
Davie18,44890%D +12.5D +16.7
Dare19,05698%D +15.2D +15.1
Sampson18,37290%D +15.2D +20.4
Edgecombe17,94298%D +17.4D +17.3
Halifax17,64798%D +16.1D +17.1
Columbus16,96778%D +12.3D +5.9
Stokes17,48284%D +14.3D +12.0
McDowell16,34289%D +24.1D +25.6
Transylvania16,23288%D +23.5D +25.6
Duplin16,02593%D +10.5D +16.3
Macon16,18590%D +22.0D +24.6
Hoke15,81098%D +23.5D +18.3
Jackson16,05798%D +29.4D +30.8
Person15,81098%D +12.7D +15.8
Pasquotank14,85492%D +18.0D +16.6
Vance14,59198%D +14.1D +14.0
Yadkin13,53186%D +13.5D +16.6
Richmond13,35493%D +16.0D +18.8
Alexander13,45177%D +12.6D +13.8
Currituck12,65898%D +13.5D +16.6
Cherokee12,27688%D +17.7D +19.7
Bladen11,98389%D +10.0D +7.3
Ashe11,77987%D +18.0D +19.3
Madison10,47991%D +33.5D +29.0
Scotland10,33998%D +14.3D +15.6
Polk10,06993%D +15.1D +13.6
Montgomery8,97891%D +17.8D +17.9
Martin9,14691%D +19.2D +11.9
Caswell8,67494%D +14.2D +9.6
Yancey8,31681%D +32.1D +31.9
Anson7,98998%D +7.7D +12.7
Warren8,03398%D +12.9D +7.4
Hertford7,09694%D +13.3D +13.1
Northampton6,96590%D +14.4D +15.8
Bertie6,67092%D +12.9D +14.7
Avery6,65286%D +17.2D +19.1
Greene6,24991%D +8.4R +10.3
Mitchell6,23884%D +24.6D +25.3
Pamlico6,06187%D +13.6D +14.0
Chowan5,93994%D +10.5D +7.3
Clay5,71291%D +18.6D +20.2
Perquimans5,58590%D +13.0D +12.2
Swain5,10493%D +27.6D +29.5
Alleghany4,70482%D +13.9D +14.4
Washington4,52798%D +15.7D +16.0
Camden4,50792%D +16.8D +17.0
Gates4,16283%D +17.8D +11.7
Jones3,91989%D +5.5D +9.3
Graham3,67888%D +22.9D +22.2
Hyde1,95092%D +20.9D +21.2
Tyrrell1,35793%D +18.9D +12.2