Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

States

Indiana

All races decided, 1 changed party. The state's House vote has moved D +23.0 since 2024. D +24.2 since 2022.

How the count runs here

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 10 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

Stats

Each race against past elections

RaceSince 2024Since 2022
District 1D +17.0D +19.9
District 2D +23.3D +27.6
District 3D +24.8D +26.9
District 4D +27.0D +28.0
District 5D +22.9D +25.4
District 6D +23.5D +24.9
District 7D +17.6D +20.8
District 8D +29.1D +24.7
District 9D +21.7D +20.0

Congress

District 1

Frank Mrvan won
62.8%134,681
Barb Regnitz
37.2%79,734
99% counted

District 2

Rudy Yakym won
51.5%97,503
Jamee Decio
46.0%87,169
William Henry
2.5%4,825
96% counted

District 3

Marlin Stutzman won
55.0%112,512
Kelly Thompson
45.0%91,941
96% counted

District 4

Jim Baird won
54.2%115,014
Drew Cox
45.8%97,142
98% counted

District 5

J.D. Ford won
51.7%134,476
Victoria Spartz
48.3%125,870
99% counted

District 6

Jefferson Shreve won
55.1%111,116
Cynthia Wirth
44.9%90,576
96% counted

District 7

Andre Carson won
77.0%159,211
Patrick McAuley
20.4%42,208
James Sceniak
2.6%5,452
99% counted

District 8

Mark Messmer won
55.2%117,667
Mary Allen
44.8%95,465
94% counted

District 9

Erin Houchin won
54.1%122,193
Brad Meyer
43.5%98,309
Tonya Hudson
2.4%5,529
95% counted

Counties

CountyVotesCountedSince 2024Since 2022
Marion259,486100%D +18.1—
Hamilton147,070100%D +17.0D +26.1
Lake144,669100%D +26.6—
Allen104,978100%D +23.1—
St. Joseph76,949100%D +19.6—
Porter59,19195%D +24.5—
Hendricks55,079100%D +22.7—
Vanderburgh48,44696%D +26.0—
Johnson46,49697%D +22.8—
Elkhart45,34295%D +23.6—
Tippecanoe43,756100%D +20.7—
Monroe42,438100%D +17.0—
Clark38,301100%D +19.6—
Madison36,23595%D +24.6D +23.2
Delaware30,347100%D +23.9D +24.5
Boone28,062100%D +18.4—
Hancock27,931100%D +21.1—
Vigo27,45695%D +26.4—
Floyd27,76096%D +17.4—
Howard24,697100%D +24.8—
Bartholomew22,973100%D +21.2—
Warrick20,830100%D +25.1—
Morgan20,091100%D +19.9—
Kosciusko20,186100%D +16.0—
Grant16,491100%D +17.4D +21.5
Wayne16,25792%D +20.9—
LaPorte16,350100%D +6.3—
Dearborn15,123100%D +12.5—
Dubois14,634100%D +34.7—
Harrison13,29390%D +17.8—
Henry12,75990%D +18.9—
Lawrence12,69993%D +15.4—
DeKalb11,70694%D +20.4—
Shelby11,65195%D +21.6—
Marshall11,38484%D +19.7—
Whitley10,92089%D +18.4—
LaGrange10,834100%D +25.5—
Huntington10,82690%D +19.1—
Noble10,74588%D +23.4—
Steuben10,60597%D +15.4—
Jackson10,76790%D +18.0—
Montgomery9,931100%D +19.9—
Putnam9,67291%D +22.6—
Knox9,54487%D +20.4—
Cass9,49198%D +19.3—
Jasper9,23593%D +19.1—
Gibson9,130100%D +24.4—
Greene8,952100%D +23.5—
Jefferson8,99085%D +20.2—
Wells8,51488%D +15.8—
Adams8,403100%D +20.0—
Washington8,519100%D +18.8—
Posey8,06386%D +24.3—
Wabash8,05277%D +17.6—
Ripley7,81488%D +14.5—
Clinton7,29393%D +20.8—
Miami7,608100%D +18.7—
Jennings7,32386%D +16.6—
Clay7,03586%D +21.6—
White6,926100%D +15.0—
Decatur6,894100%D +16.1—
Franklin6,79685%D +11.9—
Spencer6,66082%D +21.5—
Daviess6,62388%D +22.8—
Perry6,394100%D +29.5—
Sullivan6,25190%D +29.7—
Brown6,36392%D +18.6—
Randolph6,16784%D +19.9—
Starke6,209100%D +19.7—
Owen5,92489%D +22.4—
Scott6,05781%D +20.8—
Tipton5,889100%D +18.8—
Carroll5,46583%D +16.9—
Fayette5,26580%D +15.1—
Orange5,118100%D +19.4—
Fulton5,30191%D +17.1—
Fountain5,07895%D +14.3—
Jay4,79083%D +22.1—
Vermillion4,44580%D +36.2—
Rush4,40684%D +17.4—
Parke4,32190%D +22.1—
Pike3,75796%D +21.2—
Newton3,75187%D +16.9—
Pulaski3,58689%D +8.8—
Martin3,466100%D +31.2—
Blackford3,01382%D +18.2—
Crawford2,95473%D +23.3—
Warren2,79293%D +12.6—
Switzerland2,55289%D +19.0—
Benton2,29287%D +15.4—
Union1,972100%D +18.1—
Ohio1,73483%D +17.4—