Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

New York · U.S. House

New York 2nd District

Garbarino leads by 7,921 votes. Not called.

85% counted

Our forecast: Andrew Garbarino, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish Garbarino +3.9. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 17 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Andrew Garbarino R 128,184 51.6%
Patrick Halpin D 120,263 48.4%
Total248,447

463 of 465 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Suffolk 213,505 D +2.1 R +11.0 D +13.1 83%
Nassau 34,942 R +35.6 R +34.4 R +1.2 97%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+200 votes248,447R +3.2
+3,830 votes248,247R +3.2
+1,466 votes244,417R +2.6
+347 votes242,951R +2.3
+359 votes242,604R +2.3
+205 votes242,245R +2.2
+1,542 votes242,040R +2.2
+2,264 votes240,498R +2.1
+2,615 votes238,234R +2.0
+20,219 votes235,619R +2.0
+2,230 votes215,400D +1.3
+4,455 votes213,170D +1.0