Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Kentucky · U.S. House

Kentucky 4th District

Ed Gallrein wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Ed Gallrein R won 137,623 54.2%
Melissa Strange D 103,713 40.9%
Jeremy Todd L 12,484 4.9%
Total253,820

Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 4:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Kenton 55,038 D +3.4 R +22.2 D +25.5 100%
Boone 44,090 R +16.0 R +37.8 D +21.8 100%
Campbell 34,796 D +3.8 R +20.0 D +23.8 100%
Oldham 27,628 R +8.2 R +23.0 D +14.8 100%
Shelby 17,932 R +18.2 R +35.3 D +17.1 100%
Greenup 10,344 R +30.1 R +51.2 D +21.2 100%
Nelson 9,069 R +26.4 R +45.5 D +19.2 100%
Spencer 7,300 R +41.8 R +57.4 D +15.6 100%
Grant 6,525 R +45.7 R +65.6 D +19.9 100%
Harrison 6,229 R +27.1 R +49.1 D +22.0 100%
Mason 5,598 R +21.5 R +44.3 D +22.8 100%
Henry 5,162 R +35.4 R +53.3 D +17.9 100%
Pendleton 4,310 R +43.7 R +64.4 D +20.7 100%
Owen 3,656 R +44.4 R +63.6 D +19.1 100%
Lewis 3,068 R +55.7 R +76.5 D +20.8 100%
Carroll 2,951 R +29.1 R +51.6 D +22.5 100%
Trimble 2,950 R +36.6 R +56.1 D +19.5 100%
Bracken 2,848 R +40.3 R +65.8 D +25.5 100%
Gallatin 2,658 R +39.3 R +60.7 D +21.4 100%
Robertson 880 R +33.7 R +61.9 D +28.2 100%
Carter 788 R +51.2 R +67.9 D +16.7 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+880 votes253,820R +14.1
+7,300 votes252,940R +14.0
+21,845 votes245,640R +13.1
+146 votes223,795R +11.3
+4,103 votes223,649R +11.3
+9,069 votes219,546R +10.7
+33,000 votes210,477R +10.0
+2,560 votes177,477R +11.2
Count revised by -7,095 votes174,917R +10.7
+5,499 votes182,012R +10.7
+17,932 votes176,513R +9.8
+984 votes158,581R +8.8