Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. House

Florida 7th District

Elijah leads by 1,701 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Ryan Elijah, 98% chance of winning. Projected finish Elijah +0.5. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 13 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Ryan Elijah R 161,189 49.7%
Bale Dalton D 159,488 49.2%
Christopher Dennison L 3,480 1.1%
Total324,157

82 of 82 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Seminole 194,707 D +9.7 R +3.6 D +13.3 100%
Volusia 129,450 R +15.9 R +25.8 D +9.9 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+554 votes324,157R +0.5
+730 votes323,603R +0.6
+1,226 votes322,873R +0.6
+1,262 votes321,647R +0.6
+721 votes320,385R +0.7
+1,227 votes319,664R +0.7
+3,288 votes318,437R +0.6
+1,715 votes315,149R +0.5
+792 votes313,434R +0.5
+2,600 votes312,642R +0.5
+4,147 votes310,042R +0.2
+12,105 votes305,895D +0.2