House
218 seats for a majority
Democrats258
Republicans177
Likely range: Democrats 257–260, Republicans 175–178. Chance of a majority: Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%.
Average outcome: D 258.3, R 176.7
Forecasts
Where each race is likely to end up once every vote is counted. Calls stand; every other seat gets a chance from the votes still to come and what prediction markets are paying. The model was built on election night and hasn't been tested against past elections, so treat its chances as estimates.
Senate
51 seats for a majority
Democrats56
Republicans44
Likely range: Democrats 55–56, Republicans 44–45. Chance of a majority: Democrats >99%, Republicans <1%.
Average outcome: D 55.7, R 44.3
Governors
50 governorships
Democrats30
Republicans20
Likely range: Democrats 30–30, Republicans 20–20.
Average outcome: D 30.0, R 20.0
Four ways to count the seats
The forecast is one reading. These are the same races counted more strictly, so you can see how much of the total rests on estimates rather than calls.
| Method | House | Senate | Governors | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D | R | Open | D | R | Open | D | R | Open | |
| Our forecast Calls, plus the count and market estimate for everything else | 258 | 177 | 0 | 56 | 44 | 0 | 30 | 20 | 0 |
| Both markets above 90% Polymarket and Kalshi must both price the same party above the threshold | 259 | 174 | 2 | 56 | 44 | 0 | 30 | 20 | 0 |
| Market favorites Seat goes to the party both markets favor; split markets stay open | 260 | 175 | 0 | 56 | 44 | 0 | 30 | 20 | 0 |
| Calls only Only races that have been called | 251 | 154 | 30 | 54 | 44 | 2 | 28 | 20 | 2 |
Senate and governor totals include seats not on the ballot this year. "Open" seats are neither party's under that method.
Race by race
Every uncalled race with a usable forecast, closest first.
| Race | Favorite | Lead now | Counted |
|---|---|---|---|
| TN-04 split | Broderick 78% flip | Broderick 0.1 | 99% |
| AK Senate split | Peltola 81% flip | Peltola 0.3 | 70% |
| WA-05 | Baumgartner 82% | Baumgartner 1.5 | 61% |
| CA-23 | Obernolte 85% | Obernolte 2.7 | 70% |
| MS Senate split | Colom 86% flip | Colom 0.2 | 99% |
| MN-01 | Johnson 86% flip | Johnson 0.1 | 99% |
| CO-04 | Laubacher 88% flip | Laubacher 0.7 | 93% |
| NC-03 | Murphy 91% | Murphy 0.1 | 96% |
| AZ-02 | Crane 91% | Crane 1.8 | 85% |
| FL-27 | Salazar 95% | Salazar 0.5 | 99% |
| LA-05 | Republican 96% | Moore 0.7 | 99% |
| LA-06 | Republican 96% flip | Banks 0.3 | 99% |
| AZ-05 | Lamb 96% | Lamb 2.4 | 86% |
| AZ-08 | Hamadeh 98% | Hamadeh 2.9 | 89% |
| FL-26 | Diaz-Balart 98% | Diaz-Balart 0.8 | 99% |
| FL-07 | Elijah 98% | Elijah 0.5 | 99% |
| FL-09 | Soto 98% | Soto 0.5 | 99% |
| WA-04 | McKinney 98% | McKinney 8.4 | 64% |
| AK Governor | Kreiss-Tomkins 99% flip | Kreiss-Tomkins 19.9 | 69% |
| KS Governor | Holscher 99% | Holscher 0.6 | 99% |
| AK-AL | Begich 99% | Begich 9.2 | 71% |
| NY-01 | LaLota >99% | LaLota 2.2 | 93% |
| NC-05 | Foxx 99% | Hubbard 0.0 | 90% |
| NC-07 | Rouzer >99% | Rouzer 0.8 | 96% |
| NY-17 | Conley >99% flip | Conley 4.4 | 85% |
| NC-08 | Harris >99% | Harris 1.8 | 97% |
| ME-02 | LePage >99% flip | LePage 1.6 | 97% |
| NY-02 | Garbarino >99% | Garbarino 3.2 | 85% |
| CA-05 | McClintock >99% | McClintock 12.0 | 68% |
| CO-05 | Killin >99% flip | Killin 4.6 | 89% |
| NC-10 | Harrigan >99% | Harrigan 1.0 | 97% |
| TX-27 | Cloud >99% | Cloud 1.4 | 98% |
| MI-04 | McCann >99% flip | McCann 1.8 | 97% |
| TX-02 | Toth >99% | Toth 2.0 | 99% |
Forecast to change party
TN-04 R to DAK Senate R to DMS Senate R to DMN-01 R to DCO-04 R to DLA-06 D to RAK Governor R to DNY-17 R to DME-02 D to RCO-05 R to DMI-04 R to D
Market moves in the last 30 minutes
A race appears here when a candidate's price moves at least 5 points within 30 minutes, or trading at least doubles compared with the 30 minutes before. 17 races now. Polymarket volume is dollars and Kalshi volume is contracts, so they are never added together.
| Race | Candidate | Market | Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| CA-04 | Mike Thompson | Kalshi | 14% to 8% |
| CA-04 | Mike Thompson | Polymarket | 12% to 9% |
| CA-04 | Eric Jones | Kalshi | 88% to 91% |
| AZ-02 | Jonathan Nez | Kalshi | 8% to 4% |
| CA-07 | Doris Matsui | Kalshi | 96% to 96% |
| CA-07 | Mai Vang | Kalshi | 4% to 4% |
| WA-05 | Carmela Conroy | Kalshi | 9% to 9% |
| FL-27 | Eliott Rodriguez | Kalshi | 6% to 5% |
| TN-04 | Scott DesJarlais | Kalshi | 5% to 4% |
| CA-40 | Young Kim | Kalshi | 8% to 8% |
| LA-06 | Republican party | Kalshi | 92% to 92% |
| FL-26 | Mario Díaz-Balart | Kalshi | 97% to 96% |
| NY-21 | Blake Gendebien | Kalshi | 1% to 2% |
| MN-01 | Brad Finstad | Kalshi | 4% to 4% |
| FL-26 | Nicole Locklin | Kalshi | 4% to 4% |
| NY-17 | Cait Conley | Kalshi | >99% to >99% |
| AZ-08 | Abe Hamadeh | Kalshi | 96% to 97% |
| NY-17 | Mike Lawler | Kalshi | <1% to <1% |
| CO-03 | Jeff Hurd | Kalshi | 99% to >99% |
| FL-09 | Dan Green | Kalshi | 1% to <1% |
| AZ-08 | Bernadette Greene-Placentia | Kalshi | 3% to 3% |
| UT-04 | Mike Kennedy | Kalshi | >99% to >99% |
| NJ-02 | Zack Mullock | Kalshi | >99% |