Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

North Carolina · U.S. House

North Carolina 8th District

Harris leads by 5,179 votes. Not called.

97% counted

Our forecast: Mark Harris, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish Harris +2.3. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Mark Harris R 147,094 50.4%
Colby Watson D 141,915 48.6%
Robert Whitehead G 2,890 1.0%
Total291,899

206 of 206 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Union 100,364 R +7.0 R +25.5 D +18.6 98%
Mecklenburg 56,858 D +18.2 D +2.9 D +15.3 98%
Cabarrus 50,437 D +4.7 R +14.8 D +19.5 98%
Stanly 24,338 R +36.7 R +51.4 D +14.6 91%
Robeson 19,242 R +3.4 R +22.7 D +19.3 98%
Richmond 13,354 R +5.0 R +21.0 D +16.0 93%
Scotland 10,339 D +7.3 R +7.0 D +14.3 98%
Montgomery 8,978 R +20.3 R +38.1 D +17.8 91%
Anson 7,989 D +5.2 R +2.5 D +7.7 98%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+852 votes291,899R +1.8
+475 votes291,047R +1.8
+1,870 votes290,572R +1.7
+1,066 votes288,702R +1.7
+703 votes287,636R +1.7
+9,476 votes286,933R +1.7
+10,609 votes277,457R +1.7
+4,910 votes266,848R +1.1
+3,936 votes261,938R +0.9
+2,971 votes258,002R +0.5
+2,349 votes255,031R +0.3
+4,871 votes252,682D +0.1