Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Texas · U.S. Senate

Texas Senate

James Talarico wins. Called. A change from Republican control.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
James Talarico D won 5,445,185 55.1%
Ken Paxton R 4,249,949 43.0%
Ted Brown L 190,527 1.9%
Total9,885,661

9,895 of 9,899 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 5:06 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Harris 1,382,875 D +33.5 D +5.6 D +27.9 100%
Dallas 783,308 D +46.4 D +22.6 D +23.8 100%
Tarrant 728,259 D +19.6 R +5.2 D +24.8 100%
Bexar 658,445 D +36.1 D +9.9 D +26.2 99%
Travis 548,521 D +59.4 D +40.1 D +19.3 100%
Collin 457,413 D +12.3 R +11.4 D +23.8 100%
Denton 395,959 D +8.6 R +13.4 D +21.9 100%
Fort Bend 331,775 D +29.0 D +1.6 D +27.4 100%
Williamson 278,482 D +20.7 R +2.5 D +23.2 100%
Montgomery 258,438 R +22.6 R +45.9 D +23.3 100%
El Paso 218,490 D +49.0 D +15.3 D +33.6 100%
Hidalgo 202,520 D +47.2 R +2.9 D +50.1 100%
Brazoria 141,824 D +5.5 R +20.0 D +25.5 100%
Galveston 134,555 R +6.0 R +27.7 D +21.8 100%
Hays 119,693 D +32.7 D +5.7 D +27.0 100%
Bell 110,495 D +5.3 R +16.4 D +21.7 100%
Lubbock 104,328 R +16.9 R +39.9 D +23.0 100%
Cameron 102,017 D +39.1 R +5.8 D +45.0 100%
Nueces 99,851 D +11.4 R +11.6 D +23.0 91%
Comal 89,097 R +29.8 R +46.0 D +16.1 100%
Smith 89,060 R +25.2 R +45.5 D +20.3 100%
Ellis 88,524 R +4.5 R +31.3 D +26.8 100%
McLennan 83,056 R +8.7 R +31.2 D +22.5 100%
Brazos 79,867 D +6.1 R +25.2 D +31.3 100%
Parker 76,140 R +52.1 R +67.0 D +14.9 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+25 votes9,885,661D +12.3
Count revised by -25,176 votes9,885,636D +12.3
Count revised by -6,688 votes9,910,812D +12.0
Count revised by -177,059 votes9,917,500D +12.1
+177,059 votes10,094,559D +13.6
+22 votes9,917,500D +12.1
+6,718 votes9,917,478D +12.1
+104,328 votes9,910,760D +12.0
+3,764 votes9,806,432D +12.4
+197,269 votes9,802,668D +12.3
+46 votes9,605,399D +12.0
+105 votes9,605,353D +12.0