Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

North Carolina · U.S. House

North Carolina 3rd District

Murphy leads by 233 votes. Not called.

96% counted

Our forecast: Gregory Murphy, 91% chance of winning. Projected finish Murphy +0.5. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Gregory Murphy R 117,583 49.3%
Raymond Smith D 117,350 49.3%
Daniel Cavender L 3,341 1.4%
Total238,274

209 of 209 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Pitt 62,423 D +16.9 D +6.0 D +10.9 98%
Onslow 48,111 R +19.0 R +35.8 D +16.8 98%
Wayne 38,526 R +2.7 R +16.5 D +13.8 98%
Wilson 29,359 D +13.6 D +0.4 D +13.2 98%
Lenoir 19,527 D +0.5 R +6.8 D +7.4 92%
Duplin 16,025 R +18.6 R +29.1 D +10.5 93%
Sampson 14,135 R +2.2 R +18.4 D +16.2 91%
Greene 6,249 R +9.7 R +18.2 D +8.4 91%
Jones 3,919 R +20.4 R +25.9 D +5.5 89%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+2,415 votes238,274R +0.1
+1,248 votes235,859R +0.3
+4,616 votes234,611R +0.1
+1,509 votes229,995R +0.2
+1,448 votes228,486D +0.2
+907 votes227,038D +0.3
+2,102 votes226,131D +0.4
+46,560 votes224,029D +0.5
+1,481 votes177,469D +6.2
+1,194 votes175,988D +6.5
+5,863 votes174,794D +6.9
+1,793 votes168,931D +7.3