Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Louisiana · U.S. House

Louisiana 5th District

Runoff: Moore vs. Firment. No candidate won the seat outright, so these two advance.

99% counted

Our forecast: Republicans, 96% chance of winning. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 11 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Patricia Moore D advances 40,789 17.9%
Gabe Firment R advances 39,131 17.2%
Misti Cordell R 33,366 14.6%
Michael Echols R 32,902 14.4%
Stewart Cathey R 28,160 12.4%
Antonio Wilson D 27,364 12.0%
Dan McKay D 16,047 7.0%
Austin Magee R 7,920 3.5%
Oscar Dantzler R 2,238 1.0%
Total227,917

791 of 791 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Ouachita 46,288 R +19.7 D +4.5 R +24.2 100%
Rapides 37,169 R +28.2 — — 100%
Tangipahoa 24,923 R +17.0 R +25.6 D +8.6 100%
Lincoln 13,474 R +20.7 — — 100%
Washington 12,853 R +28.9 R +40.7 D +11.8 100%
Avoyelles 11,814 R +35.4 R +58.8 D +23.4 100%
East Feliciana 7,293 R +14.8 R +22.5 D +7.7 100%
Morehouse 6,963 R +9.7 R +19.6 D +9.9 100%
Grant 6,431 R +77.7 — — 100%
Richland 6,011 R +30.6 R +39.9 D +9.2 100%
Franklin 5,669 R +38.7 R +49.7 D +10.9 100%
Jackson 5,478 R +37.5 — — 100%
Concordia 5,425 R +16.4 R +29.7 D +13.3 100%
St. Landry 5,017 D +0.3 — — 100%
West Feliciana 4,555 R +29.7 R +32.4 D +2.7 100%
St. Helena 4,411 D +6.3 D +0.8 D +5.5 100%
La Salle 4,361 R +81.2 R +83.3 D +2.1 100%
Winn 4,099 R +53.8 — — 100%
Caldwell 3,110 R +70.2 R +73.1 D +2.9 100%
Catahoula 3,064 R +35.5 R +50.9 D +15.4 100%
Madison 2,973 D +10.8 D +6.3 D +4.5 100%
West Carroll 2,813 R +68.9 R +74.7 D +5.8 100%
East Carroll 2,063 D +16.7 D +17.9 R +1.2 100%
Tensas 1,660 D +5.8 R +4.4 D +10.2 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
Patricia Moore wins——
+214 votes227,917R +26.1
+748 votes227,703R +26.1
+7,293 votes226,955R +25.9
+1,101 votes219,662R +26.3
+325 votes218,561R +26.6
+122 votes218,236R +26.7
+604 votes218,114R +26.7
+1,149 votes217,510R +26.7
+3,550 votes216,361R +26.6
+97 votes212,811R +26.3
+1,088 votes212,714R +26.3