Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Illinois · U.S. House

Illinois 16th District

Darin LaHood wins. Called.

95% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Darin LaHood R won 165,613 59.1%
Paul Nolley D 114,680 40.9%
Total280,293

3 of 402 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Tazewell 46,760 R +19.9 — — 97%
Winnebago 42,401 R +7.6 — — 98%
Peoria 23,658 R +8.6 — — 97%
McLean 22,967 R +18.5 — — 97%
Ogle 19,492 R +24.5 R +29.9 D +5.4 94%
Grundy 18,322 R +18.8 R +30.0 D +11.2 97%
Woodford 16,106 R +41.7 R +42.7 D +1.0 97%
Bloomington City 14,315 D +11.6 — — 97%
Henry 12,173 R +28.8 — — 100%
Lee 12,090 R +18.0 R +22.6 D +4.6 97%
Boone 10,697 R +12.7 — — 100%
JoDaviess 10,166 R +14.0 R +17.1 D +3.1 97%
Bureau 8,061 R +36.0 — — 97%
Stephenson 4,739 R +42.5 — — 97%
Marshall 4,709 R +33.5 R +36.6 D +3.1 97%
McHenry 4,220 D +5.3 — — 97%
Livingston 3,106 R +56.5 — — 97%
Stark 2,040 R +46.6 R +46.5 R +0.1 97%
DeKalb 1,462 R +21.6 — — 97%
Ford 1,179 R +45.5 — — 97%
Putnam 869 R +23.6 — — 97%
LaSalle 761 R +44.3 — — 9%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+19,492 votes280,293R +18.2
+1,462 votes260,801R +17.7
+18,322 votes259,339R +17.7
+42,401 votes241,017R +17.6
+1,179 votes198,616R +19.7
+77 votes197,437R +19.6
Darin LaHood wins——
+16,017 votes197,360R +19.6
+4,739 votes181,343R +18.1
+614 votes176,604R +17.5
+741 votes175,990R +17.5
+17,404 votes175,249R +17.3