Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Texas · U.S. House

Texas 31st District

John Carter wins. Called.

99% counted
CandidateVotesShare
John Carter R won 164,012 53.8%
Justin Early D 136,734 44.8%
Greg Stoker G 4,227 1.4%
Total304,973

227 of 227 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 3:43 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Williamson 152,663 R +1.7 R +15.0 D +13.4 100%
Bell 99,095 R +1.4 R +14.5 D +13.1 100%
Burnet 19,639 R +49.7 R +58.3 D +8.7 100%
Coryell 18,822 R +28.1 R +41.1 D +13.0 100%
Lampasas 9,095 R +52.9 R +60.1 D +7.2 100%
Hamilton 3,534 R +67.3 R +71.8 D +4.5 99%
Mills 2,125 R +71.8 R +77.3 D +5.5 99%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,230 votes304,973R +9.1
+16,450 votes303,743R +9.2
+4,614 votes287,293R +8.9
+5,527 votes282,679R +9.3
+8,754 votes277,152R +8.9
+7,898 votes268,398R +8.3
+4,019 votes260,500R +8.3
+1,176 votes256,481R +7.5
+3,942 votes255,305R +7.2
+606 votes251,363R +6.8
John Carter wins——
+12,477 votes250,757R +6.6