Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 21st District

Jim Costa wins. Called.

55% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Jim Costa D won 60,705 62.8%
Kyle Kirkland R 35,944 37.2%
Total96,649

323 of 323 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:13 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Fresno 83,457 D +27.3 D +8.9 D +18.5 57%
Tulare 13,192 D +14.9 R +10.5 D +25.4 49%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+10,043 votes96,649D +25.6
+1,235 votes86,606D +24.4
+2,529 votes85,371D +24.3
+2,481 votes82,842D +24.3
+13,589 votes80,361D +24.3
+508 votes66,772D +23.3
+17 votes66,264D +23.5
+4,268 votes66,247D +23.5
+295 votes61,979D +25.2
Jim Costa wins——
+61,684 votes61,684D +25.2