Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Louisiana · U.S. House

Louisiana 6th District

Runoff: Banks vs. Miguez. No candidate won the seat outright, so these two advance.

99% counted

Our forecast: Republicans, 96% chance of winning. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 11 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Chauna Banks D advances 50,878 19.4%
Blake Miguez R advances 50,213 19.2%
Rick Edmonds R 49,241 18.8%
Lindsay Garcia D 33,544 12.8%
Stephen Wagley R 28,169 10.8%
Patrick Forbes D 23,820 9.1%
Larry Davis R 11,356 4.3%
Monique Appeaning R 8,109 3.1%
Rufus Craig L 3,461 1.3%
Michael Mebruer R 3,160 1.2%
Total261,951

541 of 541 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 7:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
East Baton Rouge 121,280 D +4.5 D +40.5 R +36.0 100%
Livingston 43,380 R +56.1 — — 100%
Ascension 39,497 R +22.3 — — 100%
Lafourche 16,734 R +44.1 — — 100%
St. Charles 8,912 R +15.1 — — 100%
Pointe Coupee 8,157 R +22.9 R +27.8 D +4.9 100%
Assumption 6,976 R +25.0 — — 100%
West Baton Rouge 6,122 R +25.0 R +11.9 R +13.1 100%
St. John The Baptist 6,090 D +11.3 — — 100%
Iberville 4,347 R +30.6 — — 100%
St. Martin 456 R +84.1 — — 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
Chauna Banks wins——
+45,538 votes261,951R +16.3
+3,964 votes216,413R +23.1
+18,158 votes212,449R +23.4
+26,435 votes194,291R +22.9
+2,236 votes167,856R +25.4
+557 votes165,620R +25.6
+12,406 votes165,063R +25.6
+1,295 votes152,657R +27.1
+16,459 votes151,362R +26.9
+993 votes134,903R +28.5
+1,026 votes133,910R +28.2