Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Maine · U.S. House

Maine 2nd District

LePage leads by 5,420 votes. Not called.

97% counted

Our forecast: Paul LePage, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish LePage +1.9. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 6 points more Democratic than that report, in the same places. An early Republican lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Paul LePage R 170,265 49.9%
Matt Dunlap D 164,845 48.3%
Blank Votes NPA 6,021 1.8%
Gregory Ward WRI 125 0.0%
Write-In WRI 0 0.0%
Total341,256

0 of 8 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 6:00 PM.

By town

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Lewiston 14,709 D +15.7 D +8.4 D +7.3 100%
Bangor 13,490 D +30.5 D +20.1 D +10.4 97%
Auburn 10,571 D +13.8 D +6.8 D +7.0 98%
Augusta 8,453 D +18.3 D +10.1 D +8.2 97%
Lisbon 4,570 R +5.2 R +11.0 D +5.9 100%
Orono 4,527 D +63.7 D +41.4 D +22.3 96%
Brewer 4,494 D +7.0 R +1.3 D +8.3 97%
Hampden 4,427 D +6.6 D +1.3 D +5.3 99%
Ellsworth 4,300 D +6.6 R +0.1 D +6.8 99%
Belfast 3,882 D +50.5 D +40.0 D +10.5 100%
Old Town 3,622 D +30.9 D +13.0 D +17.8 100%
Hermon 3,582 R +18.0 R +24.9 D +6.9 100%
Skowhegan 3,515 R +4.3 R +13.8 D +9.5 94%
Winthrop 3,429 D +8.1 D +4.8 D +3.2 100%
Farmington 3,408 D +19.1 D +13.7 D +5.5 97%
Presque Isle 3,362 R +2.7 R +9.5 D +6.8 92%
Bar Harbor 3,265 D +58.8 D +51.8 D +6.9 100%
Caribou 3,223 R +14.5 R +20.1 D +5.6 94%
Turner 3,178 R +23.1 R +26.0 D +2.9 100%
Oakland 3,146 R +4.3 R +8.3 D +4.0 97%
Poland 3,087 R +7.6 R +13.2 D +5.6 99%
Gardiner 2,924 D +20.2 D +15.5 D +4.8 100%
Fairfield 2,838 R +6.5 R +15.6 D +9.1 95%
Durham 2,729 D +7.3 D +1.0 D +6.3 100%
Sidney 2,722 R +19.1 R +21.7 D +2.6 98%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+138 votes341,256R +1.6
+105 votes341,118R +1.6
Count revised by -74 votes341,013R +1.6
Count revised by -1 votes341,087R +1.6
+121 votes341,088R +1.6
+15 votes340,967R +1.6
+70 votes340,952R +1.6
+176 votes340,882R +1.6
+253 votes340,706R +1.6
+25 votes340,453R +1.6
+56 votes340,428R +1.6
+3 votes340,372R +1.6