Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

Florida · U.S. House

Florida 9th District

Soto leads by 1,477 votes. Not called.

99% counted

Our forecast: Darren Soto, 98% chance of winning. Projected finish Soto +0.5. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 13 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Darren Soto D 143,174 50.3%
Dan Green R 141,697 49.7%
Total284,871

233 of 233 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Osceola 106,774 D +22.4 R +4.9 D +27.3 100%
Indian River 77,000 R +20.1 R +27.5 D +7.4 100%
Orange 42,949 D +29.0 D +5.0 D +24.0 100%
Highlands 39,361 R +31.5 R +41.0 D +9.5 100%
Okeechobee 11,070 R +36.9 R +54.1 D +17.1 100%
Polk 3,919 R +36.9 R +50.3 D +13.4 100%
Glades 3,798 R +39.3 R +53.5 D +14.2 100%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+598 votes284,871D +0.5
+64 votes284,273D +0.4
+1,002 votes284,209D +0.4
+733 votes283,207D +0.3
+1,274 votes282,474D +0.5
+947 votes281,200D +0.6
+2,944 votes280,253D +0.8
+4,982 votes277,309D +0.6
+14,533 votes272,327D +0.5
+479 votes257,794D +2.8
+738 votes257,315D +2.9
+741 votes256,577D +3.1