Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

California · U.S. House

California 15th District

Kevin Mullin wins. Called.

52% counted
CandidateVotesShare
Kevin Mullin D won 113,187 78.0%
Charles Hoelter R 32,008 22.0%
Total145,195

299 of 299 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 4:02 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 9:00 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
San Mateo 126,752 D +55.5 D +50.9 D +4.6 54%
San Francisco 18,443 D +58.4 D +41.4 D +17.1 43%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+12,717 votes145,195D +55.9
+1,860 votes132,478D +54.9
+6,660 votes130,618D +54.8
+1,417 votes123,958D +55.7
+8,224 votes122,541D +56.0
+500 votes114,317D +57.1
+1,902 votes113,817D +57.1
+9,421 votes111,915D +57.2
+432 votes102,494D +57.1
+473 votes102,062D +57.2
+14,249 votes101,589D +57.4
+87,340 votes87,340D +57.3