Electoral MeridianIndependent Election Research

Forecasts. Results. Evidence.

North Carolina · U.S. House

North Carolina 10th District

Harrigan leads by 3,029 votes. Not called.

97% counted

Our forecast: Patrick Harrigan, >99% chance of winning. Projected finish Harrigan +1.9. This isn't a race call.

In 2026, ballots counted after a place's first report ran about 27 points more Republican than that report, in the same places. An early Democratic lead here can shrink.

CandidateVotesShare
Patrick Harrigan R 146,166 49.7%
Ashley Bell D 143,137 48.7%
Steven Feldman L 4,673 1.6%
Total293,976

191 of 191 precincts reporting. Precincts reporting is not the same as ballots counted. Last vote update Nov 5, 2:55 PM. Polls closed Nov 3, 5:30 PM.

By county

PlaceVotes Margin2024 president ShiftCounted
Forsyth 106,536 D +38.5 D +23.8 D +14.7 98%
Iredell 75,720 R +15.9 R +32.9 D +17.0 98%
Catawba 59,932 R +21.8 R +38.3 D +16.5 98%
Lincoln 38,257 R +31.9 R +46.1 D +14.2 93%
Yadkin 13,531 R +49.4 R +62.9 D +13.5 86%

Shift is this race's margin minus the 2024 presidential margin in the same place. Places with votes that look copied or wildly out of line are flagged and left out of the race's overall shift.

Vote updates

TimeUpdateTotal votesMargin
+1,630 votes293,976R +1.0
+178 votes292,346R +0.9
+10,034 votes292,168R +1.0
+3,498 votes282,134R +2.0
+3,122 votes278,636R +1.3
+4,304 votes275,514R +1.5
+3,131 votes271,210R +1.9
+2,153 votes268,079R +2.2
+15,062 votes265,926R +1.8
+3,720 votes250,864D +0.5
+5,225 votes247,144D +0.7
+4,809 votes241,919D +0.4